The productivity of AI has been one of the “great advantages” that the artificial intelligence giants have been pointing out to explain the enormous investments in this technology. February is being a key month to check the impact of this revolution and arguments to bet on it are not lacking, as we saw yesterday in the special ‘Red Pill or Blue Pill’ whose reading we recommend. But far from the Matrix universe, here on planet Earth and at the current moment, there is another reality that is also worth knowing as a counterpoint.
A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) of Massachusetts, which is echoed in The Registerensures that 80% of companies have not detected any perceptible improvement in productivity due to the use of AI. The report is based on the contributions of 6,000 executives from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Australia, with opinions from CEOs, CFOs and other management positions of companies of different sizes.
Although the data that evaluates the usefulness of AI are highly contradictory (the perception of the usefulness of artificial intelligence from the marketing departments of large technology companies to those who have to use its functions is astronomical), the situation does not invite optimism. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella himself acknowledged at the recent Davos Forum that the AI industry could lose public support if it does not offer real benefits to userswhile consuming enormous amounts of resources and causing serious problems in other areas, employment or cybersecurity.
The productivity of AI
The report indicates that 69% of companies currently use some form of AI and 75% plan to use it in the next three years. Typical uses include text generation using large language models, followed by visual content creation and data processing using machine learning. However, The impact of AI on productivity is limited. And the same in employment.
More than 90% of managers say AI has had no impact on employment in their organization over the past three years, and 89% have seen no change in productivity (measured as sales volume per employee). Despite this, many executives anticipate significant consequences over the next three years, including reduced employment. The NBER estimates that the use of AI will affect approximately 1.75 million jobs in the four countries by 2028.
Respondents also expect their companies to increase productivity by approximately 1.4% over the next three years thanks to AI. This implies a reversal of the long-term decline in productivity growth in many advanced economies, the authors say.
The NBER report adds to growing evidence that the business benefits of AI adoption They are not keeping their promises, at least not yet. A recent survey conducted by PwC consultants of more than 4,500 business leaders revealed that more than half saw neither an increase in revenue nor a reduction in costs.
A test with Microsoft’s M365 Copilot conducted by a UK government department, published in September, found no improvement in productivity– Some tasks were sped up while others were hampered. Jared Spataro, the executive who leads Microsoft’s workplace AI efforts, admitted that they were having a hard time highlighting Copilot’s return on investment (ROI) because a lot of knowledge work doesn’t translate directly into bottom-line or top-line numbers.
The summary of the report NBER is not optimistic, but perhaps realistic about the current situation. TheAI’s productivity improvements fall far short of what was promised, in stark contrast to the hundreds of billions that tech giants are investing in developing systems to power their functions.
