This winter has ended with an alarming fact for gas in Europe: German reserves are practically empty, 7% of their capacity. Energy expert Javier Blas explained that the winter of 2024-25 has left the very low gas inventories, and the cost to fill the natural deposit of Rehden amounts to almost 2,000 million euros. In addition, the continent has entered into discount time, since the European Union has demanded that the deposits be filled at 90% before November 1.
However, the European Union has made a decision to close the door forever to the dependence of Russian gas.
Close the tap to Russia. From Brussels different legal routes are being explored so that European companies can terminate long -term Russian gas contracts without paying large fines to Moscow. According to Financial Times, the European Commission has been studying the possibility of declaring force majeure to rescind the contractual obligations and not having to pay additional rates.
The Russian supply. After three years of war that still persists, this situation has caused a great energy crisis in Europe, reducing its dependence on Russian gas. Currently, the Kremlin supply represents 11% of the block compared to almost two fifths at the beginning of the conflict, as detailed in the British media. From a more economical vision, the EU paid 21.9 billion euros to Russia for oil and gas between February 2024 and February 2025, according to the Clean Energy and Air Research Center.
And they continue to depend. Russian liquefied natural gas volumes have increased significantly in the last three years. In addition, Russia has continued to export gas disguised under Azeri flag or through relations with two member countries, Hungary and Slovakia, which has generated tensions within the EU. As the Financial Times has pointed out, there are important ports such as those of France, Spain and Belgium that continue to receive loads of Russian LNG, showing the complexity of cutting energy ties immediately.
Until two years. The European Commission has promised a final roadmap to completely cut energy ties with Russia before 2027. Although its publication has already been delayed twice, the document is expected for May 6, according to Reuters. This delay responds to the conversations reactivated by the United States about the future of the Nordstream gas pipeline, which connects Germany and Russia. The project has gained importance amid the efforts of the Trump administration, since they want to find an approach that implies them in the gas transmission.
Exploring alternatives … The commission, which has refused to comment to the Financial Times, is looking for new supplies. The United States, which has been exporting LNG to Europe for a while, has profiled as the greatest supplier and is seen as a viable replacement. However, with the tariff war in dispute everything will remain to be seen.
But there is an unexpected exit. Continuing with tariffs, which have intensified in a bilateral war between China and the United States. The Asian giant has found a strategic opportunity: take advantage of contracts signed with American gas to resell it to Europe. This phenomenon has exposed how the global mechanisms of energy trade do not respond to political strategies, but to market logics.
An uncertain future. Although the date is marked in 2027, the road map has already suffered several delays and remains surrounded by political and commercial unknowns. In addition, the growing tension with the United States and the lack of a really solid energy plan leave a European Union corners, reacting too late before the dependence with Russia.
Image | Brian Cantoni
WorldOfSoftware | The Price of gas has already reached 2022 levels. Now the European industry depends on one thing: that the cold does not return
