We are five days away from the start of 2025, a key year in the future of the European automobile industry. Still far from the ban that should prevent the sale of engines that are not carbon neutral, next year is essential to understand what our future can be like.
To be clear about what we are talking about, we must be clear about the dates for the coming years, their objectives and their restrictions. These will have a decisive impact on what we will see in the coming years on the streets of European cities.
Three key dates to define the future of the automobile
The year 2025 will be a turning point in the future of the automobile in Europe. The main objective is to achieve neutrality in carbon emissions but, to achieve this, a roadmap has been established with three specially marked dates.
Of course, first of all we must remember that the calendar that we put on the table is the one that has been approved and on which we are working. However, the European Commission has already announced that it will open a dialogue table next year with the automobile industry to focus on pillars such as the use of artificial intelligence or find solutions to decarbonize the sector without this entailing a delay in employment.
However, at the moment, it seems that the key dates are not moving. These are, if everything continues, the most important:
2025, the first step
Next year will be the first step in a roadmap that points to an electric or, at least, highly electrified future. It is the year in which the CAFE regulations come into force, key to understanding the market next year.
This emissions regulation requires reducing the average emissions expelled by the fleet of vehicles sold by the European Union. This regulation was completely defined in 2023 and it states that, as average objectives for passenger cars, companies have a ceiling of 93.6 gr/km of CO2 in the emissions expelled by their vehicles.
For each gr/km of CO2 exceeded on average, the manufacturer must pay 95 euros per vehicle sold. That is, a manufacturer that has sold one million vehicles in Europe with a average of 94.6 gr/km of CO2 (+1 gr/km of CO2 above the marked ceiling) will have to pay 95 million euros as a fine.
The challenge is huge for manufacturers. In some cases, sanctions of billions of euros are expected. In The SpanishFor example, they explain that the Volkswagen Group could face a fine of more than 8.8 billion euros, taking as a reference the data collected in 2023, when its fleet released an average of 123 gr/km of CO2 on average. Ford would be the second most punished brand, as it had an average of 125 gr/km of CO2 in 2023, but its fine is expected to be lower for selling fewer cars.
2030, the turning point
If the outlined roadmap is maintained, the great turning point to embrace the highly electrified car will arrive in 2030. By then we will no longer be talking about average emissions of 93.6 gr/km of CO2. That year, the limit will be set at 49.5 gr/km of CO2 as part of the Fit 55 package of measures.
In between we should see the implementation of Euro 7, which already spoke of significantly reducing CO2 emissions but, above all, NOx (particles highly harmful to human respiratory systems). The latter is up in the air because the car manufacturers achieved with their pressures that the new regulations have been delayed to a possible implementation from 2026.
What has not been delayed is, as we say, the date of application of those 49.5 gr/km of CO2. These limits are impossible to meet with a combustion engine that has not been highly electrified, explains Guillermo García Alfonsín in liters of gasoline/100 km.
2035, the definitive year
If nothing changes, it should be the year in which the European Union stops selling new vehicles with combustion engines that are not carbon neutral.
It must be taken into account that the European Union already lowered its expectations with the approval of synthetic fuels starting that year. At first there was talk of “emission-neutral” engines but, later, the tagline “carbon-neutral” was added.
This is key because the synthetic fuels They capture CO2 for their production so, as long as they do not expel more than is used, they are considered neutral in CO2 emissions. However, they do emit polluting substances such as NOx. The latter is inseparable from a combustion engine (to a greater or lesser extent), so the wording of “emissions neutral” left engines that used synthetic fuels or burned hydrogen out of the equation.
The peculiarity of the plug-in hybrid
This entire roadmap, which has been changing slightly in recent years and which manufacturers continue to try to modify with constant pressure through statements or publications from ACEA (the main group that acts as employers), has been pushing Europe towards a almost entirely electric future.
Everything indicates that the year 2025 will be a good time for who is looking for an electric or plug-in hybrid car. Especially the latter are the great asset of the manufacturers to save the furniture from the possible fines that may fall on them.
First of all, it must be taken into account that the approval of the emissions ejected by a plug-in hybrid is controversial but, in reality, it is difficult to find a solution. Depending on the type of use of the vehicle, pollutant emissions differ much more from laboratory tests than in the case of a combustion vehicle.
In approval tests, a plug-in hybrid constantly repeats cycles until its battery is exhausted. The last of them starts with the battery completely dead. This leaves us with approved consumption that varies by a tenth of a liter/km of CO2. This leaves us with figures like that of the plug-in hybrid Audi Q8, with a consumption of 1.2 liters/100 km and 28 gr/km of CO2 despite its 2,490 kg weight and 489 HP.
Realistic? Everything will depend on the use. Anyone who only uses the battery of their plug-in hybrid to get around on a day-to-day basis and only uses the gas tank for longer getaways will say yes. Obviously, it will be very far from those who never use the electric motor and have only opted for this option to save money with the MOVES III Plan or enjoy other advantages such as access to the Bus-HOV lanes or to city centers.
What do we expect in 2025?
Many more electric and plug-in hybrid cars and fewer combustion vehicles. At least in relative terms. That is the only way for manufacturers to reduce the fines they will have to pay if they exceed the emission limits set for them.
In fact, everything indicates that in a country like Spain, where the electric car has not taken off and the charging infrastructure is in doubt, it is to be expected that sales of plug-in hybrids will increase considerably.
So far this year, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles are on par, with an advantage in market share for the latter in the global market. According to ANFAC data, electric vehicles have represented 5.08% of sales between January and November 2024, compared to 4.83% of plug-in hybrids.
This technology has traditionally been expensive compared to combustion counterparts. However, in 2025 an influx of Chinese plug-in vehicles at knockdown prices is expected. They are especially interested in BYD and MG, with plug-in hybrid cars that are not hit by tariffs, as is the case with their electric cars.
To this we must add that the rest of the manufacturers also have a weapon in the plug-in hybrid if electric cars find it difficult. start sales compared to Tesla or, simply, they lack competitive electric vehicles. A good example is Mazda, which, as Stellantis has also advanced, will sell fewer combustion cars or make them more expensive so that the electric or plug-in hybrid gains share in the final sales of the year and, therefore, the final average volume of emissions is lower.
These manufacturers are not the only ones who have made statements in this regard. The Volkswagen Group plans a significant reduction in its production next year. It urgently needs electric vehicles or, failing that, plug-in hybrids to gain a lot of weight in its bottom line.
The general photograph leaves us, therefore, years in which it is very likely that the plug-in hybrid is winning the battle to the electric. Especially in countries like Spain where this technology is advancing slowly in its growth. We must not lose sight of the fact that the most affordable electric cars aim for short ranges that are difficult for customers to accept. The plug-in hybrid gives the customer the advantage of forgetting about the latter and the manufacturer of significantly reducing the average emissions of its fleet.
Foto | WORLD
In WorldOfSoftware | CATL wants to turn plug-in hybrids into true electric cars with its latest battery: 400 kilometers of autonomy
