The UK’s climate has already changed, with extreme weather and record-breaking temperatures ‘the new normal’, a major new report has warned.
Sea levels have risen faster than the global average, putting us more at risk from storm surges, while wild animals have shifted their routines, having their young earlier in the year.
Every year, the Met Office – which gives us our weather forecasts – has a look back at what the weather was like overall in the previous calendar year, comparing it to trends before this too. The latest report shows that the climate even of 50 years ago was significantly different.
If you think back to summer 2024, you probably remember a dismal lack of sunshine, and the term ‘anticyclonic gloom’ suddenly becoming a phrase people threw around in small talk.
It was a gloomy year without much chance to get the kind of sunburn too many of us have today, after a heatwave weekend.
But the report foud that overall, the chances of hot days have shifted significantly, while cold days became less likely.
What has changed in the UK’s climate?
The UK has warmed at a rate of about 0.25°C a decade and is now about 1.24°C warmer than from 1961 to 1990.
According to the state of the UK climate report, published in the Royal Meteorological Society’s International Journal of Climatology, ‘baselines are shifting’ so records broken for heat and rainfall should not be surprising.
Met Office experts say the UK’s climate is ‘notably different’ from just a few decades ago.
Although 2024 had a notoriously rubbish summer in terms of sunny days, it was still the fourth warmest year in records dating back to 1884.
It’s not alone: the last three years have all been in the UK’s top five warmest on record.
‘The hottest days we experience in the UK have increased in frequency dramatically in just a few decades,’ experts warned.
‘At the same time, the frequency of the coldest nights we experience has also dropped dramatically.’
The gif below shows how much hotter things have got within just 50 years, since 1976.
Rainfall is also on the increase, which combined with higher sea levels could mean we need to invest more in sandbags.
For 2015-2024 the winter half-year was 16% wetter than the average for 1961-1990.
It’s not just a question of how hot or cold it will be.
Even animals are changing their behaviour and life cycles. According to the report, last year frogspawn appeared and blackbirds nested at the earliest times in the period measured since 1999, while trees also held onto their trees for longer.
Should I be worried about this?
While we would never begrudge people some happiness at ‘hotter than Barcelona’ headlines, as an overall trend the increased heat is a problem.
We’re not equipped for hot summers, with few homes with air conditioning, deaths spiking in heatwaves, and water supplies threatened by dry springs and summers.
Only today, Thames Water expanded a hosepipe ban to millions of people who won’t even be able to fill up a paddling pool for kids in the heat.
The potential for flash flooding has also been brought home by deadly events in Texas and Valencia recently, with experts warning London is also vulnerable.
Changes to phenology (seasonal events in nature, like birds nesting or flowers blooming) could have knock-on effects on ecosystems. And a ‘false’ spring of warm weather very early in the season can put wildlife at risk of consistent warmer temperatures do not follow.
The Energy Secretary called the report’s findings ‘a stark warning’ to take action on climate and nature.
‘Our British way of life is under threat,” Mr Miliband said.
‘Whether it is extreme heat, droughts, flooding, we can see it actually with our own eyes, that it’s already happening, and we need to act.
‘That’s why the Government has a central mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower and tackle the climate crisis.’
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