When NBC News turns a state or district red or blue on election night, it is because the NBC News Decision Desk has determined that it can predict a winner in that race. Here’s how NBC News projects the winners, the steps needed to verify the results and the answers to some frequently asked questions about the process.
How does NBC News project race outcomes?
On November 5, the Decision Desk projects 610 races in all 50 states, from the presidential election to statewide and congressional contests.
Projecting a winner means that the Decision Desk has determined that the trailing candidates cannot catch the leader and that the leading candidate will win the race. This determination is made through extensive analysis, and the Decision Desk only projects a race when it is certain of the outcome.
Early on election night, the Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether to predict non-competitive races. Competitive races are called based on analyzes of voting results at the district and provincial level. The analyzes also look at the differences between early voting and Election Day voting. In competitive contests, careful analysis of how many of the votes have not been counted is a crucial part of the process. I repeat: no race is expected until the Decision Desk has full confidence in the winner.
NBC News will not declare a winner until after the last scheduled cut-off time for statewide polling in that race.
What types of calls and characterizations does the Decision Desk make?
Here are the top Decision Desk calls and characterizations our audience can expect to see from NBC News on election night:
Too early to call: This characterization includes two scenarios. The first is that there may be a significant margin for one of the candidates, but we have not yet met our statistical standards for predicting the race. The second is that there is not enough data to determine the margin with certainty.
Too close to call: This characterization means that the final margin between the candidates will be less than 5 percentage points. This determination is made through statistical evaluation, not by counting votes. That’s because raw vote counts can sometimes be misleading in determining how close a race is depending on which votes are counted. For example, if a race is tied in raw vote counts, but the only places with uncounted votes tend to lean heavily toward one party, the race could easily become less competitive than the raw vote count appears at the time.
The Decision Desk will not use this characterization until we have statistical confidence that the race will be that close.
Leaning: The Decision Desk will issue a nuanced characterization if it is confident that the leading candidate will win, but it may take some time for the race to reach our standards for a call. It is used when a race has stabilized, but the statistical threshold for declaring a race has not been reached.
Expected winner: NBC News has predicted that one candidate will win the race.
How will NBC News challenge control of the Senate?
When a party has won a majority of seats in the Senate – 51 for an outright majority or 50 seats plus the game-changing vice presidency – the Decision Desk will project control of that party.
How will NBC News invoke control of the House of Representatives?
When a party has achieved a majority of 218 seats in the House of Representatives, the Decision Desk will project control over that party.
NBC News is part of the National Election Pool. What does that mean?
The National Election Pool, or NEP, is a consortium of major news networks – ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC – that pools resources to collect voting data and polling data. The NEP works with consumer research firm Edison Research to collect timely and comprehensive election data on Election Day and in the following days, weeks and months until results are certified by all states. The NEP licenses data to several news media, including Reuters and The Washington Post.
How are votes counted?
The NEP hires “data reporters” or “stringers” who are trained to go to specific county and district locations to collect election results from local election officials. These data reporters are present at polling stations before the polls open and long after the polls close. Other sources for election voting data include computer feeds and state and county voting websites, where available.
What is an exit poll?
Using probability-based sampling methods that allow us to scientifically reach a representative group of voters in a state or nation, the exit poll is a survey of voters conducted as they leave their polling place, as well as by telephone for voters who cast their vote. vote early or by mail. It is the only survey of actual voters on Election Day and is conducted at more than 600 polling stations across the country.
Election Day voters will be interviewed in person as they leave their polling place. The exit poll also includes extensive interviews with in-person early voters and telephone surveys of early and absentee voters. Approximately 20,000 interviews will be conducted.
One use of the exit poll is to help analysts determine whether an uncompetitive race can be predicted. However, the primary use of the exit poll is to help viewers understand voters’ attitudes on a variety of issues. Exit poll results answer key questions about support for candidates, policy issues, and cultural and economic issues, explaining who voters are and what motivated them to vote.
What steps are being taken to collect and report election data in order to make a call?
1. Data reporters (see above) and interviewers in the field collect the results.
On Election Day, NEP compiles vote totals in all 50 states for statewide races, mail-in ballots and all 435 House races. Approximately 1,125 interviewers will work for NBC News through the NEP to collect votes at the county and district level and conduct exit polls.
NBC News also supplements the data collected by NEP through its own efforts to collect turnout data and voting results at the precinct level.
2. Multiple sources provide voting results throughout Election Day.
Data comes in on Election Day from multiple sources, with data reporters and interviewers across the country requesting results in a timely and ongoing manner throughout the day. Voting data is also collected through state and county websites and feeds.
3. Data is checked for accuracy.
The voting results are strictly monitored and verified. Part of the quality control involves checking that the voting data is consistent across all sources, and we also compare the vote to previous election results to see if turnout looks extremely different across multiple previous races. Decision Desk vote counting analysts, along with computer software, trigger quality control alerts, and senior team members review vote totals that fail quality control.
4. NBC News independently analyzes the data.
NBC News’ race projections are completely independent of those of other news outlets. The Decision Desk independently analyzes voting and exit poll data and uses proprietary statistical models, as well as a team of experts – most of whom have PhDs in data analytics, polling, election administration and political science – to interpret the results to decide when races can be projected.
5. Results and forecasts are delivered quickly.
Election Day voting data will be made available as soon as possible. The counting of votes will continue for several more days in several states. Exit poll results are independently analyzed in real time, and NBC News will call all races once the Decision Desk has full confidence in the winner.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com