A COLOSSAL asteroid on a collision course with the Moon could damage thousands of satellites and send shrapnel blasting towards Earth, experts have warned.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 sparked concern earlier this year with fears of a “city killer” incident if it hit Earth directly in 2032.
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Fortunately, newer estimates put Earth in the clear – instead the Moon is at risk.
Nasa predictions suggest there’s a 4.3 per cent chance of the massive asteroid hitting the Moon.
Now scientists say there could still consequences that affect us all the same if it does indeed strike the Moon.
A direct hit would leave a huge 1km-diameter crater on the lunar surface and send millions of kilograms of debris pelting towards Earth.
Read more about asteroids
Dr Paul Wiegert from University of Western Ontario, told AFP that the impact on the Moon’s surface would be “comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released”.
“A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet,” he said.
Most of the lunar rock would burn up in Earth’s atmosphere posing no threat to life on the ground.
But some of that material could blast around Earth’s orbit, striking satellites and spacecraft.
Given the increasing number of satellites in lower Earth orbit, this risks damaging satellites used for communications or navigation.
However, there would be some positives too, in the form of a stunning meteor shower.
The research was conducted by Canadian researchers and presented in a paper that’s not currently peer reviewed.
“If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years,” the paper warns.
“The resulting meteor shower at Earth could be eye-catching.”
Asteroid 2024 YR4 orbits the sun and is currently too far away to be seen properly by scientists.
It’s not expected to be visible again until 2028 when experts can reassess the possible impact.
HOW NASA ASSESSES ASTEROID DANGERS
Explained by Jamie Harris, Assistant Technology and Science Editor at The Sun
Nasa uses something called the Torino Impact Hazard Scale to rate asteroids and other objects.
The scale goes from zero to 10.
Zero – also known as white zone – is defined as: “The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.”
At the top end of the scale is 10, which states: “A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often.”
