Apple’s iPhone lineup is about to do something fairly interesting this year: Carry the entire smartphone market on its shoulders. Worldwide smartphone shipments, according to new data from IDC, are expected to grow by something on the order of 1% in 2025 (which is practically flat), reaching 1.24 billion units overall. Obviously, that doesn’t sound like a lot, but here’s the kicker — based on IDC’s data, smartphone shipments this year would have actually declined worldwide were it not for a pickup in Apple’s iPhone shipments.
The entire market is forecast to end up in positive territory this year thanks to an estimated 3.9% rise in iOS sales, a reminder of how much importance continues to be attached to Apple and its iPhone line even in a tough global economy with uneven demand. Apple, for its part, is also no doubt pleased with these numbers, especially right now, just days before the company’s annual fall iPhone reveal event — with the iPhone 17 launch just around the corner.
The iPhone effect on the smartphone industry
Overall, IDC’s forecast presents a rather mixed picture for the year. On one hand, the global market is being dragged down by weaker demand in China, where shipments are expected to decline by 1% as government subsidies roll away and consumers hold back on spending. At the same time, iPhone shipments remain a bright spot, with softness in some parts of the world offset by consumers’ interest in replacing their devices in markets like the U.S., Middle East, and Africa — this Apple-driven trend apparently being what’s lifting the smartphone market 1% in 2025 all by itself in an otherwise challenging period.
For Apple, this is welcome data to see ahead of its “Awe Dropping” event on September 9, at which time we’ll get our first look at the iPhone 17 family of devices — with the rumors about them pointing to what just might be Apple’s slimmest handset yet. Rumors indicate an ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air, for example, will feature updated design elements like a camera bar across the back panel.
Looking further ahead, IDC’s new report says smartphone makers are focusing less on unit growth and more on value, thanks to innovations like foldables and on-device generative AI. But in 2025, it’s Apple’s iPhone that’s doing the heavy lifting — and reminding us all once again why the September iPhone event remains one of if not the most important moments on the smartphone calendar.
