He has tried by pulling a checkbook and even exercising Celestina, but Japan has encountered a seemingly irresoluble problem: birth. The country has gone from demographic winter to the debacle without palliative. That is at least the reading left by the latest government data, which reveal that in just one year (from January 2024 to January 2025) the population of Japanese citizens has been reduced to more than 900,000 people, the largest fall since at least 1968.
There is only one positive indicator: immigration.
A Data: 908,574. Talking about birth in Japan for a long time is to talk about falls, pessimistic forecasts and a future full of unknowns. It is nothing new, but that does not prevent when your government publishes official data, as has happened this Wednesday, the demographic debacle is still surprising. And rightly. According to the data of the Ministry of Interior, in 2024 the country lost neither more nor less than 908,574 inhabitants, which leaves the census of Japanese citizens in 120.65 million. Far, far from the 126.6 million it reached in 2009.
More than a blow. The data is bad in itself and does not improve when it is put in context. As Kyodo News recalls, it is the 16th consecutive year in which the Japanese citizens’ census falls, a trend that seems to have no softening visos. On the contrary. The 2024 was the greatest demographic collapse of the statistical series, which starts in 1968. You have to go back to that same decade to find a lower birth record than the one scored last year: 687,689. In the opposite pole, the number of deaths (almost 1.6 million) stood at maximum.
A percentage: 59%. Demography is not simple statistical theory, it is directly connected to the country’s economy. And that is something that government data makes it very clear: after years of population debacle and with the engine of gripada birth, Japan has found that only 59% of its population is of working age (between 15 and 64 years), significantly below the world average, which is around 65%, according to the latest estimates of the OECD.
With less and less native population of working age and a society in full aging, the panorama facing the country is the least challenging. In fact there are those who warn that a ‘red line’ is crossing. Some authors point out that 2025 will mark the point where the population born during the Baby Boom of the late 40s will exceed 75 years, an age at which the percentage of the working population collapses and increases that of those who require care. That turning point even has a name: the “problem 2025”.
And what does that suppose? That in practice it is quite likely that from now on Japan will be “a sudden increase” of elderly who need care, which will result in “a significantly greater burden on the workforce,” warns an IPEI report. Regarding what it will mean for public coffers, years ago the government has accounts and already calculated that between 2025 and 2040 the general costs of social care will be triggered by 60%.
How to solve it? The big question. Japan has been deploying a range of measures to encourage their birth and reverse their demographic crisis. And that happens so much to dedicate millions millions to programs Pronatality and raising aids such as encouraging paternal casualties or facilitating young people to find a partner. It is nothing new or exclusive to Japan. In South Korea, China or Russia governments have launched similar campaigns with disparate results.
In the background, however, a key question underlies, as the BBC chain already pointed out in 2023: to increase the birth of a country is a matter of money? Do the ‘baby checks’ or the paternal casualties? To what extent do these factors influence and how much depends on more structural ones, such as the difficulties in accessing broad homes, labor philosophy, gender inequalities, the cost of life or simply a cultural change that no longer prioritizes motherhood?
A word: immigration. Not all demographic indicators in Japan are in red numbers. Moreover, there is one that grew last year until reaching record values: that of foreign residents, those of other countries with permission to remain in Japan for at least three months. According to government data, its number grew by 10.65% (354,089 people) to adding 3.68 million. The records had never reached such a high figure.
In practice that means that foreigners already represent almost 3% of the total population, another figure that had never been achieved before. Japan Times It points out that in 2024 661,800 people were moved from abroad, which shows that the fall that this record during the pandemic has been experienced, especially in 2021 and 20022. If both Japanese citizens and the foreign population and the foreign population are taken into account, the total census of residents in the country is at 124.3 million, approximately 554,000 less than the previous year.
Why is it important? Because the influx of foreigners has served for more than softening the country’s demographic bleeding. It also involves a chute of energy for its economy. 85.77% of foreign residents are of working age, a significant percentage for a country with a birth problem and that has been aging years. The increase in immigration also has certain challenges. His increase coincides with the rise of the Ultra -Right party Sanseito, who has campaigned by flying the motto of “The Japanese first”.
Image | JJ YING (Unspash)
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