The real AI job shock isn’t who gets fired, but who never gets hired.
Call it an accident, a blunder, or an “oops.” Regardless of the term, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) unsettled employees last week when it mistakenly sent an email to many of them referencing “reducing layers… and removing bureaucracy.”
After that accidental email went out, Amazon quickly confirmed 16,000 corporate job cuts.
This is the company’s second recent round of layoffs. It previously cut 14,000 jobs in October.
Both cuts follow a memo sent by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy to employees last summer, stating that he expects the company to reduce its corporate workforce as it leans more heavily on generative AI tools to fulfill duties.
“As we roll out more generative AI and agents, it should change the way our work is done,” Jassy said. “We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, and more people doing other types of jobs.”
In short, Amazon’s layoffs come as part of broader tech industry restructuring.
Most discussions about AI’s impact on employment focus on dramatic displacement – mass layoffs, like Amazon’s, and whole professions vanishing overnight. That makes for compelling headlines, but it misses the real near-term impact.
AI’s earliest impact on the job market isn’t who gets fired. It’s on who never gets hired.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book has noted repeatedly that firms are using AI tools to reduce the need for entry-level hiring, customer support staff, junior analysts, and back-office roles. Existing employees, augmented by software, are doing more work. Positions that would normally be backfilled are being quietly left open.
That alone is enough to stall job growth.
Recent productivity data reinforce the point: Output per hour has risen faster than total hours worked. In plain English, the economy is producing more output without needing more labor. If that dynamic persists – or accelerates – employment growth can turn negative, even if GDP remains positive.
Survey data adds an important human dimension to the statistics.
In the Consumer Confidence survey published by the Conference Board, the share of respondents saying jobs are “hard to get” has been rising, while the share saying jobs are “plentiful” has been falling. This shift is modest so far, but it is telling.
Historically, perceptions of job availability deteriorate beforepayroll numbers turn negative. People feel the slowdown first – through longer job searches, fewer callbacks, and fewer postings – long before layoffs dominate headlines.
That pattern appears to be unfolding now.
Perhaps the most underappreciated signal is coming from a group who rarely worries about employment: recent college graduates.
According to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, unemployment among recent college graduates has risen, and underemployment has climbed to levels last seen during the pandemic disruption. More than 40% of recent grads are now working in jobs that do not require a degree.
That is not a coincidence. Entry-level hiring is exactly where AI-driven efficiency shows up first. When firms can automate basic research, coding assistance, customer support, and routine analysis, junior roles become optional… or obsolete.
And entry-level roles are the pipeline that sustains net job growth.
If, as I expect, job growth turns negative in 2026, it may not feel like the end of the world. But it could feel like something even more unsettling: an economy that still runs, but with fewer people running it.
All this tells me that now is the time to “future-proof” your portfolio. That is, invest in companies and industries that AI can never replace… even as it slowly begins replacing the workforce.
But AI isn’t just changing the future of job growth or availability. It’s also changing the relationship between America’s public and private sectors.
And investors need to pay attention.
I’ll explain more below. But first, let’s take a look back at what we covered here at Smart Money…
Smart Money Roundup
January 28, 2026
Natural Gas Found Its Spark – How to Play Past the Rally
A huge winter storm blanketed roughly two-thirds of the continental U.S. in snow and ice last weekend. Hundreds of thousands of people have been left without power… and in need of natural gas.
I am optimistic about the natural gas sector and expect it to perform well in 2026. I believe that the time has come for natural gas stocks to reflect the bullish trends already underway beneath the surface.
January 29, 2026
How to Avoid Making This Common Investing Mistake
There is one trend that many investors detrimentally overlook: profit margins. You can think of profit margin as answering one simple question: “For every dollar a business brings in, how much does it actually keep?”
You want to pivot away from companies where margins are regressing and look in places where the opposite is true. I dive into one such company.
January 31, 2026
While Other Investors Chase Hype, Do This Instead
Today’s AI boom is checking important boxes that indicated a bubble back in 1999… which is why I want investors to proceed with caution, especially as glittering headlines could make the Mag 7 seem appealing right now.
I’ll explain why you’ll want to avoid the dangerous weight of the Mag 7 companies, despite their “magnificent” earnings… and show you calmer waters to invest in instead.
February 1, 2026
Own the Six Bottlenecks That Control AI Growth
The race for AI dominance has become a matter of national strategy. Washington is accelerating permits, steering capital, and clearing obstacles for the companies it views as mission-critical. That shift changes everything for investors.
My InvestorPlace colleague Luke Lango joins us to lay out the framework behind this new mobilization — and the six choke points where capital, policy, and urgency are converging right now.
8 AI Winners to Look at Before February 22
Luke Lango has been tracking the technologies, timelines, and policy moves that point to where this next wave of investment is heading – and he’s identified what he thinks are the eight best opportunities for investors right now.
These moves won’t stay under the radar for long. And once they’re obvious to everyone, much of the upside will have already been captured.
Because according to Luke’s research, the government could publish a detailed list of Genesis Mission funding priorities by February 22.
That means the window to act is now – before the rest of the crowd catches on.
So, Luke has put together a special free briefing that explains how this mission is taking shape and what it could mean for the markets ahead.
You can watch it here now.
Regards,
Eric Fry
