5G networks are now over five years old, and as the industry enters a phase of maturity, the densification of mid-band spectrum and 5G Standalone (5G SA) sites will be the key catalyst for service providers to capitalise on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities, according to research from Ericsson.
The latest version of the Ericsson mobility report shows that, essentially, 5G subscriptions are growing, with a quarter of all mobile subscriptions projected to be 5G by the end of 2024. This momentum is set to continue, with 5G expected to overtake 4G as the dominant mobile access technology by subscription some time in 2027.
Quarter-on-quarter total mobile network data traffic growth between the second and third quarters of 2024 was around 4%, with total monthly global mobile network data traffic reaching 157 EBytes. And while the rate of mobile network traffic data growth is declining – estimated at 21% year-on year for 2024 – it’s still expected to grow almost three-fold by the end of 2030 from present day numbers.
On global mobile data traffic, the report calculates that 5G networks are expected to carry about 80% of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030, compared with 34% by the end of 2024.
The report also showed how 5G SA and 5G Advanced are expected to be key focuses for communications service providers (CSPs) for the remainder of the decade as they deploy new capabilities to create offerings centred on value delivery rather than data volume. Of about 320 CSPs currently offering commercial 5G services, the report noted that less than 20% are 5G SA. Almost 60% of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 are expected to be 5G SA subscriptions.
Early mover service providers are already offering value delivery models based on differentiated connectivity, guaranteeing users uninterrupted high-end connectivity when they need it most to create new monetisation and growth opportunities.
Yet even as the report underlines the global potential for differentiated connectivity, it cautions that beyond China, 5G mid-band is currently only deployed at about 30% of sites globally. The densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is seen as a key catalyst to capitalise on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities.
A key 5G use case flagged in the study is fixed wireless access (FWA), which continues to grow in popularity globally as the second-largest 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB).
In four out of six regions, more than four-fifths of CSPs now offer FWA, and the number of FWA service providers offering speed-based tariff plans – with downlink and uplink data parameters similar to cable or fibre offerings – has increased from 30% to 43% in the past year alone.
Regionally, Western Europe has witnessed rapid growth in FWA speed-based offerings, with 52% of CSPs in the region now doing so compared with 32% a year ago. Europe alone accounts for 73% of all 5G FWA launches globally in the past 12 months. Of the 350 million projected global FWA connections by the end of 2030, almost 80% are forecast to be over 5G-based.
The report also addresses how AI, including Generative AI applications – already integrated across smartphones, laptops, watches and FWA products – could impact uplink and downlink network traffic, driving potential mobile traffic growth beyond current baseline predictions. The report also noted that the first 6G deployments are expected in 2030, building on and scaling the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.
“Service differentiation and performance-based opportunities are crucial as our industry evolves,” said Fredrik Jejdling, executive vice-president head of business area networks at Ericsson.
“This is highlighted in the November 2024 Ericsson mobility report, which includes detailed analysis, statistical insights and customer use cases,” he said. “The shift towards high-performing programmable networks, enabled by openness and cloud, will empower service providers to offer and charge for services based on the value delivered, not merely data volume. This report offers valuable insights into what our industry can achieve and the steps necessary to get there.”
