Investments in the development of artificial intelligence have skyrocketed in the last two years. It is not something strange if we take into account the very high expectations that have been placed on this technology. Not only at the level of technological innovation, but because of the economic and labor implications that artificial intelligence will have on the industry and the productive fabric of the countries.
A new OECD report is betting that the emergence of artificial intelligence has the potential, at least in macroeconomic terms, to increase productivity in the countries that most integrate it into their processes. A value that has been stagnant and with a downward trend for years.
A hope for economies. Economic analyzes of artificial intelligence agree that its use will become a key driver for economic growth. The new report from the OECD Department of Economics analyzes how the industrial implementation of AI could revitalize productivity growth, especially in those European countries that have had stagnant productivity rates for decades, such as Spain, Italy or Germany.
The forecasts for the United States are somewhat more optimistic than for Europe. It is estimated that AI could increase annual labor productivity between 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points over the next decade. In contrast, the European Union does not offer such an optimistic forecast due to its downward trend. According to data from a report by the European Central Bank, EU productivity in 2023 fell by 1%, while in the United States it grew by 0.5%.
The sooner the better. The better forecasts for the US are also justified by the fact that companies in that country are leading the development and implementation of AI in the automation of their processes.
The report predicts that the adoption rate in the United States will reach 40% in the next decade, while in Europe this percentage could be significantly lower due to the reluctance of companies and employees to use AI in their work, causing their pace of adoption.
Barriers to adoption. The report highlights that mass adoption of AI faces significant obstacles. Currently, only between 5% and 15% of companies in the OECD use any AI tools in their processes.
This range contrasts with the optimism of OECD analysts, who predict adoption rates of between 23% in the most conservative scenario, and more than 40% for the best forecasts of adoption of AI by companies.
AI is not for everyone. The OECD report equates the development of generative AI based on language models, such as those of ChatGPT, to a revolution comparable to the arrival of the steam engine, electricity or the internet. According to the OECD, sectors such as software development could increase their productivity by more than 50%, while customer services and business consulting could improve by 14% and 40% respectively.
The OECD warns that this improvement in productivity will not reach all sectors equally. Manufacturing activities are less sensitive to automation, as well as construction or agriculture, which have less room to integrate this technology into their production processes. This analysis coincides with the forecasts included in the report ‘Jobs of Tomorrow: Great Language Models and Jobs’, prepared by the organization World Economic Forum regarding the impact of AI on jobs.
An AI with arms. The OECD analysts’ recipe for the increase in productivity brought by AI to reach all economic and productive sectors is to put arms into it. Or in other words, develop robotics in parallel to AI models, so that it can be implemented in assembly lines and manufacturing industries.
This complementation would make the productive increases that AI would provide more sustained and inclusive, preventing the sectors most sensitive to technology automation (IT, financial services, consulting, sales, etc.) from monopolizing all growth.
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Image | Unsplash (Simon Kadula)
