At the end of March last year, NASA launched a very special statement. The agency came to say that the biggest object that will happen near the Earth will be an asteroid that will approach 32,000 kilometers and can be seen with the naked eye on April 13, 2029. A few hours ago, NASA has given another of “those” news. They have found a meteorite distinct To all we know.
YR4: Impact risk. As we said, NASA has issued a statement on an asteroid called as 2024 YR4 discovered at the end of December 2024 by the Atlas system in Chile. This object has drawn attention because it presents a probability of impact greater than all recent meteorites: 1% for December 22, 2032, which makes it one of the asteroids with the greatest potential risk of collision registered until the date.
With everything and as we usually say in these cases, this estimate will possibly change as new observations are made, with expectations that the probability of impact decreases.
Classification and risk. The asteroid has an estimated size of between 40 and 91 meters in diameter, similar to that of the object that caused the Tunguska event in 1908. Therefore, it is currently classified at level 3 of the Torino scale, indicating a probability Real impact that merits monitoring, although, again, its level is expected to be reduced as more data will be obtained.
This scale, used to assess the risk of asteroids, goes from 0 (without danger) to 10 (catastrophic collision). In any case and for us to get an idea, before this finding there was no recorded asteroid with a score greater than 0 on the Torino scale.
Closeness and probabilities of impact. The closest step of 2024 YR4 is estimated at 0.00001 Astronomical Units (AU) of the Earth, which is equivalent to 1,500 kilometers away, that is, closer than many satellites in Earth’s orbit.
Currently, the probability of impact is 1 in 83 (approximately 1.2%), which has generated that concern in the scientific community. However, and although we look repetitive, it is important to underline that the experience with similar asteroids indicates that these probabilities usually decrease after more analysis.
Precedents. There have been cases of asteroids that have reached higher levels on the Torino scale and were subsequently discarded as threats. An example is 99942 apophis, which in 2004 reached level 4 due to a 1.6% impact probability in 2029, although subsequent studies eliminated any risk in 2029, 2036 and 2068. Therefore, it is feasible to think that asteroid 2024 YR4 in The future is reclassified at level 0 as its orbital calculations are related.
Possible consequences and monitoring. To put ourselves in the worst of the stage, with a possible impact, 2024 YR4 would not represent a global extinction event, but could cause significant damage if impacting a populated area, similar to the famous Tunguska event that swept a vast region in Siberia. Therefore, NASA and other space agencies will continue to track their trajectory and refine the calculations to confirm their destination.
Although the US agency has emphasized its statement that the probability of impact remains low (around 1%) and that this type of initial evaluations tend to be corrected over time, also ends up underlining that it will adjust its predictions ensuring that any potential risk Be duly evaluated and, if necessary, approached with planetary defense strategies.
Image | POT
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