NASA has upped the odds of a 200ft ‘city killer’ asteroid smashing into the Moon in 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was once feared to be on a collision course with Earth, with the chance peaking at 20 percent by some estimations.
2
2
Further calculations showed it will sail past our planet without incident during a flyby in 2032.
However, the space rock is now back in the spotlight following a warning from Nasa.
YR4 now has an increased chance of hitting the Moon.
The asteroid is too far to observe from Earth, so scientists have used the $10billion James Webb Space Telescope (JSWT) as their eye in the sky.
Using data from JSWT, a team of scientists from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory refined predictions of where YR4 will be on 22 December, 2032.
The new predictions prompted Nasa to increase the odds of a lunar impact from 3.8 per cent to 4.3 per cent, according to a recent update.
The odds of an impact have more than doubled since February – when Nasa gave it a 1-in-59 chance of hitting our only orbital satellite.
“As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve,” Nasa noted in its most recent statement.
The US space agency will be able to make more observations about the asteroid’s predicted path when during its next flyby of the Sun in 2028.
Fortunately, in the event of an impact, there would be minimal consequences for Earth.
“In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit,” Nasa wrote.
It would simply add another pockmark to the lunar landscape, which is plastered with impact craters.
Any debris kicked up by the impact would likely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere – if any of it nears our planet at all.
JWST observations suggest that the space rock measures between 174-220 feet in diameter.
That is roughly the size of a 10-story building.
While the probability remains low – at over 96 per cent chance of a miss – Nasa is closely monitoring the asteroid.
The James Webb Space Telescope: an overview
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a space-based observatory that is designed to complement and extend the discoveries of the Hubble Space Telescope.
It is named after James E. Webb, who was the administrator of Nasa from 1961 to 1968 and played a pivotal role in the Apollo program.
JWST is equipped with a 6.5-meter primary mirror, which is significantly larger than Hubble’s 2.4-meter mirror, allowing it to observe much fainter objects at greater distances.
It operates in the infrared spectrum, which enables it to peer through dust clouds that obscure visible light and to observe the earliest galaxies that formed after the Big Bang.
The telescope was launched on 25th December 2021 and is positioned at the second Lagrange point (L2), approximately 1.5 million kilometers from Earth.
This location provides a stable environment with minimal interference from Earth’s heat and light.
JWST’s scientific goals include studying the formation of stars and planets, understanding the evolution of galaxies, and investigating the potential for life in other parts of the universe.
It is a collaborative project involving Nasa, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA).
