Nigeria’s headline inflation eased in April due to high energy and telecom costs, alongside currency depreciation, and a slowdown in food inflation.
Headline inflation slowed to 23.71%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from 24.23% in March. While food inflation may have stabilised on improved supply and softening demand, core inflation—excluding food and energy—cooled to 23.39% due to rising costs in utilities, telecoms, and other import-heavy sectors. Food inflation for April was 21.26%.
“Core inflation is likely to remain the key driver [of inflation], sustained by the pass-through effects of the naira’s depreciation on import-dependent goods,” said Felicia Awolope, Senior Investment Research Analyst at Meristem. “Conversely, food inflation may continue to moderate, supported by stable supply levels and subdued demand.”
The naira, though more stable in April than in the first quarter, remains significantly weaker year-on-year. Importers and service providers continue to adjust prices upward in response to past FX volatility, especially in urban centers.
“The absence of a meaningful decline in food prices has also limited any potential relief on the headline number,” said Victor Onyema, Head of Investment Management at Norrenberger.
While energy and transport costs have shown some stability, any renewed naira weakness or external shocks could reignite broader inflationary pressures, Onyema said.
“Inflation may follow a broadly moderate path if currency stability holds and global commodity prices ease,” Awolope said. “Still, imported cost pressures and FX risks remain key concerns.”
April inflation data will shape the outcome of the Central Bank interest rate setting meeting when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on May 19. After a series of hikes aimed at stabilizing the naira and curbing inflation, analysts expect a more measured stance.
“We expect the MPC to hold rates, especially given recent FX and price stability,” Awolope added. “But with oil prices softening and external inflows under pressure, maintaining investor confidence remains critical.”
