In June we offered a detailed map that gave a sense of who was who in the nuclear arms race last year. The truth is that, at the time I write this, the map could be the same in 2024, if anything with a small but very important variation that we are going to tell about below. The United States continues to dominate nuclear weapons spending, but what was once a distant point in the neck is now a breath of hope.
The nuclear “advantage.” Time reported a few weeks ago about a fact that had not occurred since the Cold War. Despite having one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, the United States faces a growing disadvantage against its competitors, whose nuclear expansion challenges the strategic balance. The code name is no longer Russia, that too, but it is impossible not to place on the map the force that promises to be the greatest adversary: China.
The rapid construction of missile silos in the nation’s western desert and the creation of long-range submarines and bombers, all identified in recent months through satellite images, show a massive increase in its nuclear capacity, one that exceeds the American deterrent force that, compared to the Chinese one, we would say is aged and outdated.
The intrastory of the beginning. A Guardian report this week reviewed the geopolitical “nuclear” map. It is impossible not to start at the beginning, when at the 1985 Geneva summit, the leaders of the United States and the USSR, then Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, declared that “a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.”
This statement paved the way for decades of arms control, achieving agreements and treaties that limited arsenals and stopped an arms race that, if “tightened,” has always been assumed to be catastrophic. However, today, that consensus is very far away. In fact, the British media explained that there are too many inputs that point to the same place: the world faces a new and more dangerous nuclear race, one with that guest actor that leaves Russia and the United States with a frown.
The key or “red button” for destruction at the Titan II ICBM nuclear missile site located in Sahuarita, Arizona
Dismantling. As we said, through decades of negotiations, the United States and Russia reduced their number of nuclear weapons, from around 60,000 to around 11,000 officially. Key treaties such as START and New START came into play here, proposals that allowed limiting the number of strategic weapons deployed to 1,550 per nation.
What happened? That the withdrawal of the United States from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) in 2002 began the erosion of the arms control system. That trend intensified with Russia’s suspension of the New START treaty in 2022 in response to increasing Western intervention in Ukraine. In the background: February 2026, when New START will expire and, for the first time in half a century, the two largest nuclear powers will be unconstrained in their arsenals, and with an elephant in the room.
Now there are three. The new nuclear race is more unstable and complex than the previous one due to a mathematical issue, since it involves three main actors. China, which had maintained a limited arsenal, is now in full nuclear expansion with the goal of matching the United States and Russia, presumably by 2035.
This rapid expansion of the Chinese arsenal is a cause for concern in Washington, especially given the Asian alliance with Russia. The two countries, in an agreement of “limitless alliance”, have publicly expressed their intention to counteract American influence globally. Under this breeding ground, the relationship between the three nuclear powers adds a new and dangerous layer of tension to the arms competition.
Titan II launch site located in Sahuarita, Arizona
Made in Rusia. The nation has strengthened and modernized its nuclear capabilities, although at a slower pace, developing new weapons such as that kind of intercontinental hypersonic glider and a much-publicized long-range nuclear torpedo. Innovations that seek to counteract the deployment of anti-missile defenses by the United States, which Russia considers a threat to its deterrence capacity. Furthermore, this year they renewed their “nuclear doctrine”, raising the tension a little more.
Made in USA. The situation today is more complicated by technological advances, mainly AI, cyberweapons and possible weaponry (and conquest) in space, although this is another separate chapter. All factors that create an unstable environment that is difficult to predict. In this regard, the United States has also begun a costly process of modernizing its nuclear triad (missiles, bombers and submarines), estimated at 1.5 trillion dollars, a figure that increases tensions and the country’s financial burden.
That said, some of these weapons, such as ICBMs, are considered “first-strike weapons” due to the need to launch them quickly in the event of conflict, increasing the risk of accidents and miscalculations.
Y made in China. Time provided current data. China has built at least 300 new intercontinental missile silos, a number that surpasses the United States’ 400 Minuteman III missile silos whose technology dates back 54 years. In addition, China is advancing its fleet of ballistic submarines, with the upcoming Type 096 model, quieter and with longer-range missiles.
In contrast, US shipyards are struggling to produce their next generation of ballistic submarines on time, delaying delivery of the first of the Columbia class until at least 2027. But there is much more. In addition to its land and sea capabilities, China has assigned a nuclear role to the H-6 bomber and is developing the H-20, a long-range, stealth nuclear bomber, one capable of threatening the continental United States for the first time. .
Put more simply, all this rapid and multifaceted expansion clearly reflects the creation of a Chinese nuclear triad, thus matching the tripartite deterrence strategy of the Americans (land, sea and air).
The clock. It should not be taken literally, obviously, but it is a reflection of the tensions. The advancement of the Doomsday Clock was located in January at just 90 seconds from midnight, and it has a clear meaning: it is the closest position to the nuclear catastrophe in history. Indicative of the world’s growing dependence on nuclear weapons and, perhaps more importantly, the lack of progress in arms control.
And diplomacy? Despite rising tensions, there are steps that could be taken to stop the new nuclear arms race. The Guardian reported that one of them is the reactivation of communication channels between Washington and Moscow, the same ones that were essential during the Cold War to avoid misunderstandings and transmit intentions effectively. According to NATO General Christopher Cavoli, these communication channels allowed nuclear powers to achieve deterrence without significant risk.
In addition, Rose Gottemoeller, former negotiator of the New START treaty, suggests the possibility of a new agreement to limit intermediate range missiles, involving China in the equation. Similarly, the US Senate could reconsider its position on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which has been ratified by 178 countries, although it cannot yet come into force until the US, China and other key countries ratify it. .
Conclusion: the infinite cycle. The scenario described above leads us to think that we return to square one from time to time. The pressure to increase arsenals does not necessarily translate into greater security for nations, but rather an escalation that could get out of control.
As in the Cold War, a diplomatic de-escalation, driven by dialogue and negotiation, seems the only viable path to prevent this new nuclear race from leading to the brink of disaster. That, and achieving an intangible: that Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping sit down to have coffee without weapons in the room.
Imagen | Jonathan McIntosh
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