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The power of narratives is compelling. Humans trust story tellers and respond to stories more than facts. But, narratives can manipulate the public into supporting misguided policies with dire consequences. In Washington state, such narratives often go unchallenged. Let’s unpack the proposed income tax.
The term “millionaire’s tax” itself. This new tax is an income tax. No income tax in history has ever stopped at just high earners. The legislature is trying to convince you otherwise, but they’ve raised gas taxes, payroll taxes, revenue (B&O) taxes and capital gains taxes. In Olympia, it’s never enough! They are trying to claim that an income tax won’t broadly expand in a future “emergency.”
“Emergency” income tax bill. This is another narrative favorite. Last year the state increased spending $9 billion and is increasing spending $2 billion MORE this year to over $80 billion. The solution to balancing the budget is to modestly reduce spending, not increase it further. But, that reduces dollars flowing to labor unions and non-profits who benefit most from state spending. So, the income tax is labeled an “emergency” to avoid an initiative challenge. How can you trust legislators who play such games?
“Lowering” the highest estate tax. Washington already had the highest state estate tax in the country at 20%. Last year it increased to 35%. So, more people moved away. Now the legislature is trying to “sell” the new income tax by “reducing” the estate tax back to 20% — STILL the highest in the country. It is just a narrative to justify creating an income tax. The combination of 20% estate taxes, 10% capital gains tax and an additional 10% income tax will drive people out of Washington faster and keep others from ever coming.
People don’t leave because of taxes. This narrative is simply false. Of course, people leave — I already returned to Georgia! Law firms and tax advisors have created practices to serve the massive increase in clients re-domiciling out of Washington. Financial advisory groups are publishing tax analysis that is motivating others to move. Club member requests for non-resident status are surging. Non-profits are hearing from longtime donors that their giving is focused on causes in their new home state. Every day I hear about someone else leaving Washington for Nevada, Texas, Idaho or elsewhere. Countless others who still have children in schools are making their plans to leave as soon as they can. Even the legislature knows this — that is why they are posturing to reduce the estate tax. Washington’s reputation as a pro-business and pro-innovation state has plummeted (dropping from top 5 to bottom 5 in five years). Many future founders and job creators will not be coming to the state. A critical source of competitive advantage for attracting bright and ambitious people to Washington state is going away.
By now you have probably created a narrative about me — perhaps as a venture capitalist looking out for himself and the founders he has backed. But, my inspiration for working so hard to create opportunities for others derives from my life experiences. My mom never went to college, and my dad was the first in his family to attend college. They met in the U.S. Army, and both worked incredibly hard to provide an opportunity for our family. After graduating from a large public high school in Miami, I attended Dartmouth College and that experience changed the trajectory of my life. Twenty-six years ago, I took the greatest risk of my life to move our young family from Georgia to Seattle to join a fledgling investment firm backing founders right as the dot-com bubble burst! Our firm, Madrona, helped founders prioritize, cut costs and survive a true economic crisis exacerbated by 9/11. Founder resilience produced amazing success stories that contributed back to Washington state in countless ways. Now, most of those entrepreneurs have left the state for pro-business communities.
Everyone deserves an opportunity to realize their full potential in life and earn the benefits from their hard work and risk-taking. Most who succeed choose to be very generous with their time, talents and resources in the communities where they live. State political leaders, focused on dividing the pie rather than expanding the pie, are substantially driving innovators away from Washington! Sadly, that is not a narrative, but a reality the state will have to live with forever if they create an income tax today.
