This winter will be the third since the Ukrainian war began. A conflict that has altered the geopolitical and energy dynamics of Europe. Energy dependence on Russian gas has been a headache for sanctions due to the armed conflict. Finally this year the energy dependency front will be closed.
Russian gas consumption. Before the beginning of the conflict, Russia supplied 40% of gas to Europe. This energy dependence forced some countries to align with the Kremlin’s decisions. In 2023, dependence was reduced to 8%, but countries such as Hungary, Austria and Slovakia are currently heavily dependent on Russian gas and will be affected by the agreement between Ukraine and Gazprom.
The gas pipelines. When there was still trade and communication channels between kyiv and Moscow, the state-owned companies of Russia and Ukraine, Gazprom y Naftogazsigned an agreement for the export of Russian gas to the European Union through Ukrainian soil. The end of this agreement will be December 31, 2024.
This land route, known as Ukrainian Transitis one of the two to access Russian gas. The other is the TurkStream that crosses all of Türkiye and enters community soil through Bulgaria and Romania, is at maximum levels. For his part, both Nordstreamsabotaged in 2022, as Yamal, that enters through Belarus and Poland, have been at zero since shortly after the start of the war.
Europe can live without Russian gas. With the contract expiring at the end of 2024 for the gas pipeline through Ukraine, the country has declared that it has no intention of renewing that agreement due to the war with Russia. However, in this third winter, Europe does not have the problem of previous years since it has made progress in the diversification of its energy sources and has increased the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, it faces opposition from Hungary and Slovakia.
Why are they opposed? Hungary and Slovakia disapprove of Ukraine’s decision not to extend the Russian gas transit agreement, due to their dependence on this supply. Both countries have explained that Russian gas is a cheaper source and have criticized the high tariffs imposed by other EU countries for alternative routes.
On the one hand, Slovakia’s interest in maintaining the flow of gas from Russia is due to the high costs of alternative routes. On the other hand, Hungary has indicated that the gas pipeline TurkStream could be a viable solution for Europe if Russian gas transit through Ukraine is stopped.
What are the gas reserves that Europe has? This winter, European countries have gas reserves of 95% of their total capacity. In the case of Spain, with a lower capacity than other large partners, it is almost 100%. This plan promoted by the EU to diversify energy sources and reserve gas has led to greater storage to face the winter.
Alternatives from Europe. This winter Europe faces the situation differently, because dependence on Russian gas has decreased drastically. This has led to a diversification of energy sources, such as the increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other alternatives from Norway and Azerbaijan.
However, LNG imports via ships remain important, mainly for countries such as France, Spain and Belgium. In these countries there is a large capacity for processing and regasification of liquefied natural gas.
For this reason, the European Union has intensified its efforts to ensure security of supply and increase transparency in Russian gas imports. From Europe they want more information on the amount of gas purchased and the companies involved. For its part, Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers is expanding, transporting up to 70% of seaborne oil.
Image | Brian Cantoni
WorldOfSoftware | A European satellite has captured two ships transferring natural gas in the Mediterranean. The key: it is Russian LNG
