Waymo had a massive outage in San Francisco earlier this month after a power outage took out traffic lights, stranding the robotaxis in the middle of intersections. Traffic lanes and crosswalks were blocked by frozen autonomous vehicles, some multiple cars deep.
It was what people in tech call an edge case; something that happens rarely. However, one problem shouldn’t paralyze the transportation and emergency services infrastructure of a city with 800,000 people. New Year’s Eve will be the next big test of Waymo’s resilience. As bars empty out and parties end, revelers will be looking for a way home. Waymo is a likely choice for many inebriated partygoers, especially women who prefer the relative safety of not being paired with a random man tasked with driving them to their doorsteps.
A Waymo frozen at an intersection after a power outage. (Credit: Rakesh Agrawal)
The San Francisco Bay Area is Waymo’s biggest market, with 1,000 vehicles covering 260 square miles, up from about 500 vehicles on NYE 2024. I recently priced a trip at night. Uber was $16.92. Lyft priced at $18.33 after a 20% promo discount. Waymo was $50.16, which is nearly $20 a mile. That is not typical, but expect to see high fares on New Year’s Eve, when demand should be greater than a random Saturday night.
(Credit: Rakesh Agrawal)
“We have limits on our dynamic pricing, and at times of extremely high demand, we may display ‘no cars available,'” a Waymo spokesman told me.
In my case, I didn’t have to think twice about whether to take the human driver; the added safety advantage of a driverless car wasn’t worth it. If I were a women traveling alone at night, however, I would think about that trade-off.
“We have consistently seen that a lot of female riders prefer Waymo,” said Harry Campbell, founder of The Driverless Digest. “Not having a driver in the car removes a lot of the risk around passenger-to-driver interactions, especially late at night.”
(Credit: David Cameron/Getty Images)
Waymo has one constraint that Lyft and Uber do not: A fixed number of vehicles. The company cannot suddenly conjure up new cars. Waymo’s primary option is to raise prices or to not take rides. It can also pre-position vehicles in areas where high demand is expected.
Because Uber and Lyft use a flexible pool of drivers, the higher prices will incentivize more drivers on to the platform. As this happens, the market clearing price goes down.
The net effect of a significant price difference is that men will choose the cheaper option and women are more likely to pay the premium for a driverless car. This becomes what’s called a “pink tax.” Waymo isn’t explicitly charging female riders more; some women will just end up paying more because of market dynamics.
Uber and Lyft have added measures to help offset the safety gap. Female passengers can indicate that they prefer a female driver and vice versa. Lyft’s Women+ Connect feature also matches nonbinary drivers and riders.
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“In San Francisco specifically, we’ve seen strong adoption since the feature launched there in our initial pilot phase,” said Lyft spokesperson Jill Gonzalez. “The opt-in feature has resonated with drivers and riders seeking more comfortable ride experiences.”
(Credit: FG Trade/Getty Images)
Uber estimates that about 20% of drivers are female, but that can vary by city. As with Waymo, a smaller pool can lead to higher prices.
“While we aim to keep Women Driver trips priced in line with similar Uber trips, pricing is always influenced by a number of factors—including time, distance, driver availability, and local demand,” a spokesperson said. “In some cases, if a woman driver is farther from the pickup location than a male driver, or if demand is higher than usual, the trip price may differ.”
Some female drivers also prefer female passengers. “We also hear from a lot of female drivers that these options matter,” Campbell said. “Picking up intoxicated strangers late at night, often in unfamiliar or sketchy areas, can be stressful and sometimes scary.”
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Waymo did have a notable incident where people blocked their car trying to get a woman’s phone number. Even so, the woman was able to call support from a locked glass box.
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Frankly, you’d have to be really stupid to do something in front of a rolling surveillance machine. There would be video evidence of what happened from numerous camera angles and LiDAR plots of your body. From a safety standpoint, Waymo’s advantage isn’t just cameras—it’s persistent, multi-angle capture of movement. Even with masks, gait and height are identifiable signals, gold for investigators. (This might also dissuade you from having sex in a Waymo.)
How Waymo Can Solve the ‘Pink Tax’ Problem
As a product leader, I’d do five key things if I were running Waymo:
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Place a hard cap on prices. I don’t want to see people sharing receipts (or even quotes) of $500 for a one-mile ride.
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Pre-position vehicles near nightlife areas around midnight. In San Francisco, that would be the Mission and Marina. This will help serve the obvious demand spike that will happen after midnight.
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Offer a waiting option. E.g. If a rider is willing to wait 30 minutes, they get a guaranteed price. This helps to smooth demand. The rider can also wait in a safe area.
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Have tents in the Mission and Marina to promote the service and offer promo codes with discounts tied to various times. Waymo can’t shape supply, but it can shape demand.
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Have external speakers make announcements like “Police have been notified. You are being recorded,” in the unlikely case someone tries to attack a vehicle.
The most likely scenario isn’t Waymo’s vehicles getting into accidents. It’s that poorly designed pricing and planning algorithms anger riders. Ride-share users got their first taste of dynamic pricing from Uber on New Year’s Eve 2011, when prices skyrocketed for short journeys. Complaints were plentiful, prompting an apology from Uber’s engineering team.
If you have to explain supply-and-demand or market clearing prices, you’ve already lost. Sometimes it’s better to leave money on the table in the short term to preserve long-term reputation. Waymo has the advantage of learning from Uber’s experience. On the other hand, TikTok wasn’t around in 2011 for people to share their experiences.
General Safety Advice for Passengers
If you’re getting a ride on New Year’s Eve, here are some things to keep in mind.
For all rides:
For human drivers:
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Verify that the license plate matches what is shown in your app.
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Confirm that the driver is the same as the picture on the app.
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Check to see if child locks are on. If child locks are activated, you won’t be able to exit the car on your own. (I was once kidnapped by a taxi in Istanbul. I waited until there was a red light near a well-lit intersection and jumped out.)
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Share your trip with others.
For Waymo rides:
About Our Expert
Rakesh Agrawal
Contributor
Experience
Rakesh is a San Francisco-based entrepreneur and analyst exploring how technology reshapes society. He focuses on the human side of technology, especially AI and autonomous vehicles. Once, he nearly interviewed Richard Branson in a Vegas wedding chapel before being redirected to Branson’s penthouse suite. Read more on his blog.
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