Semicon is a series of exhibitions run by SEMI and focused on semiconductor manufacturing. It has everything, from materials to equipment to fabrication. I say series of events because virtually every region in the semiconductor ecosystem gets one – Semicon China, Semicon Europa, Semicon India, Semicon SEA, Semicon Japan, Semicon Korea, Semicon West (USA), and of course Semicon Taiwan, all throughout the year.
The show this year
Chen Nanxiang, the Chairman of both Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC) and the China Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA) said in the opening keynote, “China’s semiconductor market belongs to the world, while the world’s semiconductor market also belongs to Chinese companies”. He and the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce’s Wang Ning also praised Nvidia’s progress, highlighting generative AI as a key growth driver for the industry, and were very bullish on the industry’s goals to become a $1 trillion market by 2030. Working together globally is key to reaching these goals, they said. This was a very positive and inclusive message, one that representatives of SEMI shared (albeit via video as none seemed to be present in person), but seemed at odds with the language coming from Beijing, which recently banned Intel and AMD chips from government computers, and from Washington, which continues to restrict semiconductor technology exports to China.
I have been attending Semicon China and Semicon Taiwan for several years. Semicon Taiwan last September felt like the largest show I’d ever been to, but Semicon China felt larger again, albeit simultaneously less international. It has grown every year I have attended and this time was no different. Over 35,000 visitors, 1,000-plus exhibitors, and still a number of foreign firms taking up some of the largest booths. Japanese firms were especially present, with the likes of Sumitomo, Canon, Tokyo Electron, Disco, and many more having the largest booths at the show. Korea, Taiwan, and Europe both had a large showing, with Korea and Taiwan having their own pavilions.
When speaking with exhibitors though, not everything was as rosy. Exhibitors at the Korean pavilion did admit the Chinese market was tough for them right now, but did not want to go into details. Surprisingly, despite this, they claimed Semicon China was the only Semicon where they planned on having a specific Korean pavilion this year. Such a decision can be interpreted in several ways, either negative or positive. Another Chinese exhibitor working for an outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) vendor admitted that the entire industry was witnessing involution. Like other industries in China, too many players had entered, no one had any clear differentiation, and decent margins were rare.
There was also a clear lack of US companies, just 22 in total, and no household names such as AMAT or LAM. This may not be surprising, but compared to other foreign countries it did feel strange. Cadence’s CEO did appear in person, however, and gave a very informative speech about how AI is driving Cadence’s product development and industry growth.
Power electronics and compound semiconductors were another key theme of the show, having a large area set out just for compound semiconductor companies and also a two-day conference. China now accounts for around 40% of the global power semiconductor market, driven in part by explosive EV sales growth over the past few years. In 2023, BYD Semi overtook Infineon in the Chinese market, and now five of the top ten companies in China are domestic. BorgWarner and Hitachi are no longer in the top ten within China.
Conclusions
The current state of affairs is somewhat contradictory. On one hand, Semicon China and Beijing seem to be welcoming foreign semiconductor companies with open arms. On the other they are pushing companies, especially SOEs, to buy made in China technologies and products. They complain about being blocked from foreign technology, but then proceed to block themselves even further. The conference remarks were very positive, but on the ground, many booths were still pushing the made in China message.
Despite all of this, China remains the largest semiconductor market in the world, and foreign firms, whether they like it or not, need to find ways to tackle it. Chinese firms themselves are facing intense competition domestically so are looking to expand into foreign markets where they hope to find better margins. My impression though is that many foreign semiconductor companies have significant technological advantages over their Chinese competitors and being present in China helps them not only keep an eye on competitor progress but also take away some revenue from these firms that could be spent on R&D to catch up from a technical perspective, or be spent on foreign market expansion.
China may not be the easiest market, but the size and scope of Semicon China, despite everything, shows that there are ways to deal with it.
