'Someone Asked Me Today How Long The DRAM Supply Shortage Would Last...I May Need To Revise That Answer': Analyst Predicts Bleak Future For RAM Crisis

‘Someone asked me today how long the DRAM supply shortage would last…I may need to revise that answer’: analyst predicts bleak future for RAM crisis

Last updated: 2026/02/11 at 4:11 PM

News Room Published 11 February 2026

As AI companies consume ever more RAM and memory, the knock-on effects mean companies across the tech world are, or will, struggle to get RAM for their devices.

Up until now, it’s been predicted that the shortages could last through 2028. That year came from interviews with the CEOs of Micron and SK Hynix, two of the largest RAM manufacturers.

“We broke ground in Idaho in our ID1 facility three years ago. And that’s gonna come online in mid-2027,” said Micron’s VP of Marketing, Mobile and Client Business Unit Christopher Moore. “But you’re not really gonna see real output, meaningful output, by the time we get all the qualifications done and customers are accepting it, and you get the tools, everything up and running until 2028.”

Someone asked me today how long the DRAM supply shortage would last… I answered 2028, but I may need to revise that answer.According to SEMI’s data, while AI infrastructure investment is expanding rapidly each year, DRAM production capacity (CAPA) is expected to grow at a… pic.twitter.com/C4UTVTzIFX February 11, 2026

According to him, new data seems to reveal that AI infrastructure investment is “expanding rapidly” while DRAM production capacity will only grow at a low “annual rate of just 4.8%” through 2030.

“What’s more, even this incremental capacity will be concentrated on HBM, meaning supply for legacy and special-purpose DRAM will be even more constrained,” Choi added.

“DRAM being in short supply may become the new normal.”

What this could mean

For many companies, you may not see an immediate effect in 2026. Many manufacturers, such as Dell and Asus, have been hoarding memory in anticipation of this problem, but that stockpile will eventually run out.

Even Apple is expecting the RAM crisis to have “more of an impact.” Samsung’s internal mobile division has reportedly been unable to secure favorable contracts from the Samsung RAM division.

Companies are scrambling for solutions. Acer’s EMEA Marketing Director, Manuel Linning, told Tom’s Guide that the company is looking into “multiple smaller vendors” of RAM chips to bypass the big three providers.

The problem is that Samsung Electronics, SK Hynic and Micron currently control 95% of the market. This means Acer is looking to tiny Chinese memory providers like CXMT and YMTC to help keep laptop prices lower.

In a shocking move, HP is considering renting laptops to get around the RAM crisis. You would end up overpaying for the laptop over time and never actually get a chance to own it.