At the doors of Holy Week and with half a country pending from heaven, in Spain almost no one (nor Abel Caballero) thinks of Christmas. In China the thing is different. There the factories that are dedicated to manufacturing the ornaments and trees that decorate the US households every December should be receiving orders that do not just arrive. And in the industry there are little doubt what the reason is: the commercial war that has raised to 145% (if the 20% applied by the export of precursors of the fentanyl) is taken into account) the rates to Chinese imports.
What is less clear is … What will happen at Christmas?
Where are the orders? That is the question that Chinese companies are being asked that are dedicated to manufacturing Christmas ornaments and trees. Yes, we are still in early April; but under normal conditions they should be receiving orders from their US clients. And it is not so.
The news was advanced yesterday by the Reuters agency, which has spoken with the administrator of a Jinhua Christmas tree factory that has even seen how one of its partners on the other side of the Pacific suspended an order worth $ 400,000. And that the Chinese company has already invested $ 54,000 in materials. His great fear is now that the commission is annulled.
“No request”. Jinhua is not an isolated case. Nor unique. Reuters has spoken with other Chinese Christmas ornaments that point in a similar direction. “We are concerned that US orders decrease,” explains the owner of another factory dedicated to Shaoxing Christmas decoration.
The person responsible for a third company admits that at least the situation breaks with the experience of past years. “In mid -April all orders are usually finished, but now … it is difficult to know if any will come,” says the director of Jinhua. So far they have not registered “any request” from the US.
And what is the cause? For China manufacturers there are few doubts. Or none. If 2025 is being an anomalous exercise for them it is basically by the commercial war unleashed on the other side of the ocean and has been climbing. “Of course it is the tariffs,” assumes one of the entrepreneurs in the sector.
After all, the Tariff War may have intensified over the last days, after the act starring Trump in the Rosaleda of the White House with its already famous Table of Rate by countries and regions; But the word tariff (the favorite of the Republican) has been grabbing headlines for months. And one of the countries that has always been in the focus is China, as has already happened in its first term.
A figure: 145%. The result is that in the middle of April the Trump policy and the resurgence of the commercial war between Beijing and Washington (which has resulted in a mutual exchange of attacks and tariff counterattacks) threatens to have an unexpected victim: Christmas. For now, Chinese merchandise to the US faces a tariff rise of 125%, a percentage to which another 20% applied by the commercialization of fentanyl precursors is added.
If we talk about Christmas ornament, USA and China maintain a more than prominent relationship. According to Reuters calculations, 87% of the supply of American retailers dedicated to Christmas decoration comes from the factories of the Asian giant, which in turn dedicate half of their production to the US. “My colleagues and I depend on American orders to survive,” assumes Jessica Guo, administrator of a Christmas tree factory.
Christmas decoration (and something else). At stake there is more than the Christmas ornament or that the US halls have more or less garlands, foams and artificial trees this year. That the sector goes well or badly translates into employment. And in millions of dollars. Two data arrives to get an idea.
The merchandise acquired by American retailers in China reaches a value of 4,000 million dollars. As for employment, only in Jinhua there is a factory of artificial trees of almost 11,000 m2 that normally uses 140 people, a template that can be elevated to 200 employees during the months of greater activity. Except for surprise, everything indicates that in 2025 it will not be necessary.
Is there alternative? That is the other big question. And twice. Does China have an alternative market with which to compensate in a puncture of the American demand? And do the US companies have to the Asian giant to stock up on figurines and trees with lights? None will have it easy.
In China, domestic demand for Christmas decoration is low and there are already businesses thinking about strengthening their efforts in Russia, Europe or Southeast Asia, which are an important part of the sales cake. However, days ago a local businessman shared with Reuters his “concern.”
The situation in the US. The US can also look at other suppliers, but without getting rid of the elongated shadow of tariffs. Another country with some weight in the production of Christmas ornaments is Cambodia, where around 5.5% of production comes from, but the rate table presented a few days ago by Donald Trump imposed 49% on imports from that country.
From the sector they also question that manufacturing ends up moving to the US, as the Republican leader aspires. “There is no technology or the labor market,” they recognize the agency. Result: Ten months seen worries since those who want to decorate their houses face a Price increase.
Imágenes | Frames For Your Heart (Unsplash), Gage Skidmore (Flickr) y Trong Khiem Nguyen (Flickr)
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