Quantum computing is projected to have a cumulative economic impact exceeding $1 trillion by 2035. This is because quantum computers are expected to perform calculations in seconds that would take traditional supercomputers many years to accomplish the same task.
At its core, quantum computing relies on the principles of quantum mechanics, such as superposition, entanglement, and interference, to perform computations.
While classical computers rely on binary bits (zeros and ones) to store and process data, quantum computers can encode even more data at once using quantum bits, or qubits, in superposition.
What this means is that the rise of quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize industries, solve complex problems, and reshape the future.
As noted by Kevin Hartnett in Quanta Magazine, “Computer scientists have been looking for such a problem since 1993, when they first defined a class of problems known as ‘BQP’ [bounded-error quantum polynomial time], which encompasses all problems that quantum computers can solve.
“Since then, computer scientists have hoped to contrast BQP with a class of problems known as ‘PH’ [polynomial hierarchy], which encompasses all the problems workable by any possible classical computer — even unfathomably advanced ones engineered by some future civilization. Making that contrast depended on finding a problem that could be proven to be in BQP but not in PH.”
Hartnett explains that in May 2018, computer scientists Ran Raz and Avishay Tal provided strong evidence “that quantum computers possess a computing capacity beyond anything classical computers could ever achieve.”
While scientists have yet to discover how to fully quantum computing, some current applications of quantum computing do exist, and they have proven highly useful.
Matt Swayne, at Quantum Insider, notes several of these:
· Finance: Quantum computing can optimize complex financial models, leading to more accurate pricing of derivatives, improved risk management, and enhanced portfolio optimization.
· Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Quantum computers can simulate molecular structures, enabling the discovery of new drugs and materials at an unprecedented pace. This could drastically reduce the time and cost of drug development and enhance existing healthcare.
· Manufacturing: Quantum algorithms are useful for optimizing supply chains, reducing waste, and improving product design by simulating materials and processes more efficiently.
· Cryptography: For better or worse, as quantum computing advances, it will become capable of breaking current cryptographic systems. However, it also presents the opportunity to develop quantum-resistant encryption methods, ensuring the security of digital communications in the future.
· Artificial Intelligence (AI): An industry that is accelerating incredibly quickly, AI can get a boost from quantum computing which can enhance machine learning algorithms, allowing for faster training of models and the ability to process large datasets more efficiently.
This is exciting to think about, but everyone is answering the same billion-dollar question: When will quantum computing become mainstream and used by consumers?
Unfortunately, nobody can confidently answer this question today, and past predictions often proved inaccurate.
The widespread use of quantum computers won’t just occur from one day to another; there’s a continuous evolution where this technology will become increasingly capable and usable.
For this to occur, there are some fundamental improvements that need to take place, specifically, the available number of qubits, the accuracy of elementary operations (gates), connectivity, the available set of gates, and the speed of operations.
In general, though, some experts seem to agree that the first applications for quantum computing will arise around 2035, with the understanding that there’s a considerable margin for error.
Of course, there are still challenges that must be resolved or at least dealt with before this happens.
There are technological barriers such as the fragility of qubits and error correction issues, as well as the need for extreme environments such as near absolute zero temperatures.
Scalability remains a problem and there are still challenges in scaling quantum computers for widespread use.
Cost plays a major role in this regard and the high costs of development and maintenance will push off advancement until this is resolved.
There are some ethical and security concerns, such as the risk of quantum-enabled cyberattacks and ensuring the ethical use of quantum technologies, but scientists and experts alike believe this can be resolved.
Ultimately, nearly everyone agrees on the immense potential of quantum computing, the challenges ahead, and its transformative power.
And like many other technologies we have seen over the last century, there is no reason to believe this will not see rapid progress as well.
All we need to do once we achieve success is to use it wisely.
