WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 13: Participants hold signs in support of TikTok outside the U.S. Capitol … [+]
As the clock ticks down on the January 19, 2025 deadline for a potential U.S. ban on TikTok, the fate of the popular app hangs in the balance. While U.S. President-elect Donald Trump recently expressed a “soft spot” for the app, and TikTok on Monday asked the Supreme Court to block the law, uncertainty grips the platform’s 170 million American users and the wider creator economy. Will alternatives like YouTube Shorts or Instagram Reels be able to take TikTok’s place? What could happen if the ban takes effect, and who stands to gain if TikTok exits the U.S. market?
Creators and Businesses in the Crosshairs
For creators and entrepreneurs, TikTok is much more than just a social media app. “The reverberations across the entire economy — particularly the creator economy — will be massive,” says Jacob Levinrad, a digital entrepreneur. “A huge portion of creators on TikTok would instantly become obsolete. Creators who haven’t diversified their channels will be hit hardest,” he adds.
The creator economy, valued at over $250 billion globally and expected to reach $480 billion by 2027, faces an unprecedented disruption, and TikTok’s shutdown could wipe out $1.3 billion in U.S. small business and creator revenue within just one month. “Losing the U.S. market would make that feel like a really bad bet,” he says.
Joe Yates, founder of Somerce, a TikTok Shop Partner Agency, highlights the risks to small business owners and TikTok’s role in connecting brands with consumers. “The platform offers a unique opportunity for brands to connect directly with consumers in a meaningful way, allowing them to grow in ways that are not possible through traditional e-commerce channels.”
Survival of the Savviest
Millions of small business owners could find themselves out of business if TikTok is shut down, unless it finds another owner, and fast, says Shama Hyder, CEO of marketing and PR firm Zen Media, and author of The Zen of Social Media Marketing.
“This isn’t just another tech story — it’s about millions of Americans who’ve built businesses and communities on TikTok,” says Hyder. “While Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts stand ready to fill the void, the real question is whether American creators and businesses can maintain their momentum through this transition.”
That threat is making several business owners sweat.
Wim Sweldens, co-founder of internet mobile firm Kiswe, notes an emerging trend toward independent monetization via direct-to-consumer websites already underway. “Creators are increasingly diversifying their digital presence,” Sweldens explains, signaling a possible long-term shift in digital strategy.
“That trend reflects a growing awareness of the importance of platform independence,” Sweldens notes.
Lizz Smoak, a brand strategist and AI integration expert, recommends establishing a presence on multiple platforms like Instagram, Facebook and YouTube, and stresses the importance of building email lists to maintain direct contact with customers, irrespective of any platform changes. “Building a community both online and offline isn’t just smart, it’s essential for long-term growth,” she says.
As the ban looms, content creators may continue seeking innovative ways to adapt. “The strongest marketing strategies are like roots of a tree: the deeper and wider they grow, the more resilient you’ll be when the winds of social change blow,” Smoak says.
What Could Replace TikTok?
If TikTok exits the U.S., users may rapidly migrate to platforms offering similar features.
“YouTube Shorts, Instagram and Facebook offer similar services and content creators can easily send their audiences to those locations.,” says Stefanie Boyer, marketing professor at Bryant University, adding that TikTok content is easy to create and share across other platforms. “Creators should start migrating their audience to other platforms where they can get similar results,” Boyer suggests.
“If TikTok goes away, people who want to consume content will not go away, so the dollars will follow where the audience consumes most content.”
YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels are the most likely beneficiaries, but former Big Tech AI designer Elle Farrell-Kingsley suggests VPNs, albeit risky, may in fact keep TikTok accessible.
“VPNs will allow users to access TikTok even if or when blocked in the U.S. — similar to how many people in China still access banned platforms,” says Kingsley. “VPNs will provide a workaround for continued access to TikTok’s features by masking IP addresses and routing traffic through different regions, although their usage can introduce privacy concerns,” she says.
Whose Data is it Anyway?
The TikTok issue raises broader questions about data sovereignty, digital rights and national security.
Kingsley warns that the potential ban could set a concerning precedent. “This could accelerate the trend toward more stringent data protection laws,” she says, noting that countries like Canada, the UK, and the EU may closely monitor the U.S.’s actions and follow suit with their own regulatory measures.
Moreover, a ban on TikTok could have a chilling effect on the broader tech ecosystem and may strain global relations in the tech domain, says tech lawyer Jamie E. Wright.
“If the ban goes through, it will also set a precedent on how social media platforms with foreign ownerships would be treated in the U.S. and may have ramifications on the future of relationships between the U.S. and other countries concerning technology,” says Wright.
The U.S. still lacks a federal data privacy law similar to the EU’s GDPR framework — an absence that creates vulnerabilities across all social media platforms, says tech lawyer Star Kashman.
“Banning TikTok does not address the root issues of national security or data privacy,” states Kashman. “If we had a comprehensive federal data privacy law, neither foreign and U.S. companies would be able to collect and distribute U.S. user data as freely and recklessly.”
TikTok’s Ticking Clock
As the debate continues, the clock is ticking for TikTok. While many remain hopeful that the app can find a way out of the crisis, the impact on millions of users, creators, small businesses and global tech policy is clear, and if the ban does take effect, the digital landscape could significantly shift — perhaps irrevocably.
For now, TikTok’s fate remains uncertain. What seems more certain, however, is that the discussions sparked by its potential shutdown will resonate far beyond this saga — shaping debates on platform governance, data sovereignty and the evolving dynamics of the entire internet economy for years to come.
