That Trump said what he said about Greenland is not new. In reality, and as we said, it is the fifth time that the United States “asks” about the largest island in the world. Behind the idea is the Arctic and, of course, geopolitics. The Arctic is crucial for global transport routes, rich in natural resources, is facing the “communist friend” and greater control in general could alter the strategies of two great powers: China and Russia. And if plan A doesn’t work, there is plan B.
We want that cave. The US Navy is reportedly seeking to resume operations at the Olavsvern complex, a submarine base built during the Cold War by the Royal Norwegian Navy. The enclave, located in the Norwegian fjords near the Norwegian Sea and protected by 270 meters of rock, once offered a strategic port for submarines and patrol vessels.
There is no doubt, although out of circulation since 2009, Olavsvern remains a high-value asset, especially in a context of growing Russian activity in the Arctic. Be that as it may, it will not be a simple negotiation. Despite initial progress in 2020 for a possible leasing deal, nothing has been finalized so far, and the future of the base remains uncertain for US interests.
Infrastructure and capacity. The Olavsvern complex features around 25,000 square meters of underground facilities including deep-water docks, a one-kilometre entrance tunnel, fortified storage areas and maintenance spaces. Not only that. Built at a cost of $450 million, largely financed by NATO, it also has barracks, a drinking water supply and a power plant.
During the Cold War, the enclave was used by Allied submarines for maintenance and repairs, and became a center for military exercises and winter training. Its ability to protect submarines and its strategic location make it a valuable asset in Arctic operations, particularly in the Barents Sea, a crucial route for the Russian fleet.
A cave facing Russian expansion. We told about it the other day, and the renewed interest in Olavsvern follows the same path and occurs in a context of intensification of the Kremlin’s operations in the Arctic. Moscow has expanded its military bases in the region and increased the activity of its submarines, the same ones that use the Barents Sea and the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom) passage to access the Atlantic.
What’s happening? Since these routes are critical for Russian naval operations, NATO and the United States Navy are trying to reinforce their presence in the region. Hence, American submarines, such as the USS New Mexico or the USS Florida, have made visits to nearby ports, such as Grøtsund, north of Tromsø, which currently serves as a support point for operations in the High North. Of course, that’s also where Trump’s “words” come from.
The only “but”. It happens that there is a stumbling block and right now it seems insurmountable. Despite its strategic advantages, the revival of Olavsvern faces significant challenges. The main one: Sold to a private company, WilNor Governmental Services, in 2013, the base is mainly used for annual training of the Dutch Marine Corps. In other words, it does not appear to be “for sale” at this time.
In this regard, WilNor has expressed its interest in once again converting Olavsvern into a logistics and operational center, that is, open to the American idea, but any plan to receive, say, nuclear submarines with the stars and stripes, requires the approval of the Norwegian radiation safety authorities, a slow process with no clear deadlines.
Geopolitical impact. It is the last of the legs to deal with in the proposed scenario. The potential use of Olavsvern by the US Navy has raised concerns in local communities due to the risks associated with nuclear submarines.
These concerns are precisely what have delayed the decisions of the Norwegian Ministry of Defense, which until now has not given clear signals about the expansion of the military use of the base. Still, growing pressure from NATO and increased European defense spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could accelerate these plans.
In the background: “conquer” the Arctic. There is no doubt, the Olavsvern complex represents a strategic asset of great value in the Arctic region for the Americans, especially given this increase in tensions with Russia. Right now the main obstacle is bureaucratic, but if we think that reactivation would strengthen NATO’s capabilities and allow the United States Navy to operate more effectively in the High North, that barrier does not seem so insurmountable.
An idea or plan that, like Greenland, underlines the importance of the enclave and the area, the Arctic, in the balance of power of the 21st century, currently positioning it as a focal point in the rivalry between great powers.
Imagen | WilNor Governmental Services
In WorldOfSoftware | Trump wants to keep Greenland. There are two countries for which it would be a serious problem: China and Russia
In WorldOfSoftware | It is the fifth time that the US wants to Buy Greenland from Denmark. If they asked on the island they would have it clearer.
