It could be material for a apocalyptic science fiction film. A missile of the future with antibalistic, hypersonic and exoatmospheric capabilities, triggered in search of its goal to intercept it: a ballistic missile to Match 5 whose technology literally exceeds the same line of karm at 1,500 km away. Both sophisticated systems are in the exosphere to elucidate a single winner. And yet, the scene is currently happening, completely changing what we understood by war conflict.
Invisible theater. The war between Israel and Iran marks an unprecedented inflection point in the history of the armed conflict, not only for its political implications, but by the radicality of its means and dimensions. What began as an announced climb, backed by decades of latent tensions, has become a confrontation without borders, without terrestrial fronts and without armies facing face to face, an “improved” version of what we had already seen in Ukraine.
Because more than 1,500 kilometers away between the capitals, without sharing borders and without direct involvement of the intermediate countries, both states are attacked by flying over and overcoming other people’s geographies. Israel displays its aerial power over Iran thanks to a fleet of F-35, F-15 and F-16 long-range, replaced in flight and operating on foreign airspace with total impunity. That operational freedom is only possible because they will go, after years of sanctions, it lacks air capacity to offer resistance. Thus, in the Iranian heavens, any object that moves must be considered an enemy.
ASIMETRÍAS AIR WAR. The historian and professor in Columbia, Adam Tooze, remembered it on the weekend. While Israel uses guided fighters and bombs to perform precision attacks (including those antibunker made in USA pumps), Iran responds with a more economical but no less ambitious strategy: long -range ballistic missiles. It is an asymmetric war. Israel flies thousands of kilometers to launch bombs. Iran launches missiles that travel that same distance through the air.
We have told it before. Each of these projectiles can cost millions, although together they represent a fraction of the value of Israeli aircraft. The extraordinary thing is that these missiles not only reach objectives to more than 1,000 kilometers away, but also cross the line of karm, the border of the outer space, reaching altitudes of up to 400 kilometers before rushing to its whites. These are unpublished exoatmospheric trajectories in real conflicts, a direct evolution of the technical legacy of the V2 rockets of Nazi Germany, recycled by Soviet and Iranian programs.
The “star” shield. Here appears one of those elements that seem taken from fantastic literature. Because the Israeli response to these attacks cosmic It is equally futuristic. Thanks to decades of collaboration with the United States, Israel has deployed the Arrow 3 system, an interceptor capable of neutralizing ballistic missiles in the emptiness of the space.
Derived from the Ronald Reagan SDI program, the system (developed by IAI, Boeing, Elta and Elbit Systems) is based on the premise of “impacting one bullet with another bullet”, yes, with a “deficit”: a cost of 2 million dollars per unit. These interceptors reach the Iranian missiles at their highest point, even before they enter the Israeli atmosphere. In fact, the first successful interception in combat occurred on November 9, 2023, marking a milestone: the first time a missile was destroyed in space during a war.
Línea de Karman
The dome and the Price to pay. Tooze told an anecdote that betrayed the heart of the use of these “star” defenses. During the massive attack of April 2024, more than 550 projectiles (between ballistic and cruise missiles) threw themselves against Israel. The aerial defense responded successfully, avoiding the closest to a cataclysm. He also said that the tangible result of that night was that the population returned to work normally.
However, this degree of protection has an exorbitant price: up to 285 million dollars per night in defensive operations, according to the Washington Post. In addition, interceptor missile production is limited. Israeli and American factories simply cannot manufacture enough Arrow 3 to hold that rhythm for a long time. Hence, in the current conflict, the big strategic question is who will first exhaust their arsenal: they will go with their missiles or Israel with their interceptors.
Europe and a shadow. Thus, while the United States and its allies look closely at that kind of “Star Wars in real life” that Reagan pursued, Europe seems determined to act, even convincing Spain.
We tell it months ago: under the Sky Shield project promoted by Germany, Batteries of the Arrow 3 system have been commissioned for billions of euros for that promoted rearma that the United States and its wallet. Although the Israeli experience does not automatically translate into the defense of the American continental territory against ICBM, it does for the European continent, which sees in this shield an response to coming threats.
New war paradigm. In the background, something that was sensed from the war of drones triggered after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and that this confrontation Missilistics Between Israel and Iran has enhanced: the beginning of a new military era. Gone are conventional wars where the fronts were measured by terrestrial kilometers.
Today, war is no longer a geographical issue and attack trajectories are going through continents and atmospheres, battles are fought from the exosphere to the basements of nuclear facilities buried in mountains. What seemed science fiction (intercepting rockets in space, living under invisible defensive domes or coordinating surgical bombings at 1,500 km away) is now part of the routine arsenal of the most militarized states in the world.
An unpublished experiment. First it was Ukraine. Now, the war between Israel and Iran has confirmed, in geostrategic terms, a radical rupture. Not only because of its extension or its protagonists, but for the type of technologies it uses, the scenario in which it is fought and the fundamentally technical, automated and remote nature of its operations.
It is no longer just a regional confrontation: now it is pointed at the beginning of an orbital era of distance war, where supremacy is defined in terms of satellite intelligence, space ballistic defense and sustained industrial capabilities. If you want, the contest hides a transformation that will mark the way the wars of the future are planned, fight and remember.
Image | NASA, Universe
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