For instance, it doesn’t take a psychic to anticipate that global handset shipments will likely fall in the January-March timeframe of 2026 compared to the same period of last year due to rising component costs and the retail prices so many device manufacturers had to increase as a consequence. Even the world’s second most populous nation and single largest smartphone market is expected to contract in Q1, but believe it or not, one major vendor could (vastly) improve its regional numbers.
Everybody loves the iPhone 17
Until then, the market is likely to “remain under pressure from March to May”, with “some improvement” expected to happen in “early June.” Will that improvement keep going through the end of the year, helping the market expand compared to 2025? I doubt it, but you never know in this crazy tech world we’re living in.
Can Apple top the Q1 2026 chart?
Then again, Oppo and Vivo’s market shares are virtually guaranteed to shrink following the two brands’ decision to raise prices for “some existing models” and thus try to set the stage for costlier next-gen devices. These decisions are reportedly reversible, depending greatly on how big of an impact the price hikes will have on sales figures, but before they can be reversed, Apple could definitely surpass both Oppo and Vivo (in addition to Xiaomi).
Beating market leader Huawei might prove a bit more challenging, as the local hero heavily relies on domestic parts suppliers, which should allow it to better keep product prices in check. Apple, meanwhile, will do that by “absorbing part of the margin pressure” and exercising a “strong control over the supply chain”, which is basically a fancy and convoluted way of saying that the tech giant is likely to effectively pass the rising costs back to its suppliers rather than consumers.
What about the full-year chart?
I’m obviously not Nostradamus, but if Apple isn’t China’s top smartphone vendor at the end of 2026, I will eat my hat in front of all you PhoneArena readers. In fact, I’m pretty certain that the Cupertino-based outfit will lead the global hierarchy as well (and I think Samsung is certain of that too), but that’s a different discussion.
