Are we at dawn of a big change in the video game industry ? And at the end of a three-manufacturer battle? According to the market research firm DFC Intelligence, the year 2025 risks shaking up a lot of things, particularly with the arrival of Nintendo Switch 2. Market research firm DFC Intelligence doesn’t think there will be room for three manufacturers in the future and that Nintendo’s next console will be a success alongside only one other console.
The end of the Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo trio?
Market research firm DFC Intelligence this week published its annual market report and forecasts for video game console sales for 2025 and beyond. In its report, DFC Intelligence is clear: we will have the right to good revenue growth for the second half of the decade. However, the research firm also foresees significant risk for one of the three established console makers.
Indeed, according to the study, the release of GTA 6 as well as the Nintendo Switch 2 should be a huge boost for the video game industry after a period of decline following the Covid 19 pandemic. DFC Intelligence is very optimistic since the firm estimates that in 2027, nearly one in two humans will play video games. Either more than 4 billion players on the planet (including mobile games of course).
Pour DFC Intelligence, Nintendo should be the big winner in the years to come, in particular thanks to its Switch 2 which will allow, like the first version of the console, to play wherever you want thanks to the hybrid side. On the other hand, the future is looking forward rather perilous for Sony or Microsoft. The firm believes that in the future, one of the two manufacturers risks collapsing, as was the case with SEGA and its Dreamcast in the early 2000s after the release of the PlayStation 2 and the arrival of the first Xbox .
In its report, the research firm states: “There is no room for more than two major consoles. Sony or Microsoft will have a hard time holding on to a distant third place, and much of that will depend on whether these two companies can gain momentum early on.”.
DFC Intelligence nevertheless specifies that this forecast only concerns the next generation of consoles and not the current generation with the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S. Of course, for the design firm, the launch date, the Priceet basic functionalities (like the possibility of having a hybrid console) will be determining factors for the future: “A new Sony system (PS6) should have an advantage due to a loyal base and strong Sony intellectual property. Microsoft failed with the Xbox Series X/S, but made major acquisitions to become the largest software company in the world. “Microsoft has the opportunity to focus on software and distribution models rather than hardware.”
Obviously, according to DFC Intelligence, everything seems to indicate that Microsoft would be in worse shape. But isn’t that exactly Xbox’s tactic going forward? For several months now, the Redmond firm has continued to highlight its subscription services with the different Xbox Game Pass plans. Today, Game Pass allows some players to play over 500 games directly without the need for Xbox consoles. This is particularly the case with Samsung televisions which are natively compatible with the application, allowing you to connect an Xbox controller to play, without the need for game consoles.
What if Microsoft’s strategy was to put an end to video game consoles after the Xbox Series X/S to leave the field open to Sony and Nintendo? While on their side, they focus on Cloud Gaming ? For the moment, it is far too early to draw conclusions, but many decisions by Microsoft taken in recent months could confirm this idea, in particular with the cessation of Xbox Game Studios games in physics on Xbox, its desire to put an end to exclusives and its cross-platform user interface design project.
In any case, the future of video games looks radiant and we hope that the industry will manage to recover. For two years, an unprecedented crisis has hit the video game industry with thousands of layoffs across the world. A shame for a sector that has exploded over the last three decades. Video games are the most profitable and thriving industry in recent years with growth that has been multiplied by 20 since the end of the 1980s. After several delicate post-Covid years, we hope that 2025 will be the new starting point towards better days.
“While 2025 will mark the start of this upward trajectory, important questions remain, including who will lose the next-generation console war and who will win the game software distribution battle. And with major publishers focusing on live services around timeless franchises, opportunities for smaller studios will be plentiful. »
David Cole, Founder and CEO of DFC Intelligence
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