For centuries, Russia’s sheer size has been its greatest asset, making the country virtually unconquerable and guaranteeing an almost limitless supply of human and material resources that have helped secure generations of superpower status. However, there are signs that this may now be changing. Ukraine is currently conducting a long-range bombing campaign across Russia that turns the country’s vastness into a weakness and exploits the Kremlin’s inability to defend every inch of the endless Russian skies.
Ukrainian bombing raids on Russian oil refineries have been underway since the early stages of the war but have gained significant momentum over the past month. While the Kremlin remains tight-lipped over the impact of these attacks, evidence of significant damage is mounting. By late August, Ukraine had succeeded in disrupting at least 17 percent of Russia’s refining capacity, according to Reuters. Britain’s Economist magazine says that the figure may be as high as 20 percent.
Ukraine’s attacks have sparked a fuel crisis in Russia, with queues reported at gas stations throughout the country amid a surge in prices. By early September, Russia’s wholesale gasoline price had climbed to record highs. This combination of shortages and rising costs is already creating unwelcome social pressures that the Kremlin cannot afford to ignore. If Kyiv is able to maintain the current pace of attacks, this could begin to seriously constrain Putin’s ability to fund the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia depends heavily on oil and gas revenues to maintain the war effort and cover the rising cost of enticing new military recruits. The Kremlin requires a steady flow of manpower as it seeks to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses, but the Russian army’s reliance on frontal assaults virtually guarantees heavy losses. In order to sustain current troop levels, Russia is therefore forced to offer exceptionally high salaries and generous enlistment bonus payments.
Disruption within the oil and gas industry will not immediately impact Russia’s war economy, but it could force Putin to make difficult decisions. Since the start of the full-scale invasion more than three years ago, the Kremlin dictator has made it a priority to shield ordinary Russians from the impact of the war. If Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries continue, the Kremlin may have to cut spending elsewhere in order to finance the military, creating the potential for destabilization on the home front.
So far, Moscow is attempting to downplay the significance of Ukraine’s airstrikes, with Kremlin officials attributing fuel problems to other causes and blaming any obvious damage to refineries on falling drone debris. However, efforts are also underway to suppress news of successful Ukrainian attacks. This has reportedly included Orwellian announcements broadcast in public spaces informing Russians not to post footage of drone strikes on social media.
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Ukraine’s increased capacity to strike deep inside Russia reflects the progress made by Kyiv since 2022 in developing its own arsenal of long-range drones and missiles. During the initial stages of the full-scale invasion, the Ukrainians had only a handful of drones capable of conducting strikes across the border. The country is now reportedly producing thousands of long-range drones every month, and has recently unveiled a number of domestically produced cruise missiles with far greater payloads that could allow Ukraine to significantly escalate the current bombing campaign in the coming months.
The Ukrainian military is learning and improving with each new strike. Key refineries and weak points in Russia’s energy infrastructure are now being struck again and again in order to hinder repair works and compound the burden on Moscow’s energy logistics. When selecting targets, Ukrainian planners are also well aware of the Russian energy industry’s dependency on Western components, with sanctions often making it difficult for Moscow to source replacements.
Crucially, Ukraine’s bombing campaign is exploiting Russia’s size and taking advantage of the country’s already overstretched air defenses. Much of Russia’s existing air defense capacity is currently deployed in occupied regions of Ukraine and along the front lines of the invasion. This leaves a limited number of available systems to defend Russian cities and other high value targets such as the palaces of Putin and the Kremlin elite. By increasing the geographical range of its bombing raids, Ukraine is forcing Russia to further disperse its air defenses. This creates inviting gaps and leaves some targets undefended.
Even with dramatically enhanced air cover, it is likely that the Kremlin would still struggle to entirely nullify the threat of further airstrikes on the oil and gas sector. With dozens of refineries, storage facilities, and port terminals, together with thousands of kilometers of pipelines spread over eleven times zones, Russia’s energy industry may simply be too large to be adequately protected against aerial attack.
Officials in Kyiv recognize that the current air offensive will not prove decisive. Nevertheless, they hope Ukraine’s increasing ability to inflict serious damage on Russia’s energy sector can help persuade Putin to finally engage in peace talks. The Russian ruler seems completely unconcerned by the catastrophic casualties his army is suffering in Ukraine, but he may not find it so easy to ignore growing threats to the economic stability of Russia itself.
Many Ukrainians also see enhanced long-range strike capabilities as crucial for efforts to deter future Russian aggression. Russia’s size makes it a formidable foe but this scale also leaves the colossal country exposed to counterattack by a smaller opponent with an arsenal of weapons tailored to the task of giant-killing. As former Ukrainian defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov noted recently, “Ukraine is a David that tries to find Goliath’s weaknesses.”
David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.
The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the , its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
Image: MAGYARBIRDS via REUTERS
