As the Trump administration outlines plans to pressure Vladimir Putin with economic measures against Russia’s energy sector, Ukraine is taking an altogether more direct approach. Since the start of 2025, Ukrainian forces have conducted a series of bombing raids on oil refineries and other energy infrastructure deep inside Russia. The attacks are part of an ambitious Ukrainian air offensive that is also targeting Russian military logistics and defense production sites.
Ukraine’s expanding airstrike campaign highlights the country’s growing long-range capabilities thanks to the rapid evolution of domestic drone and missile production since 2022. The attacks come at a time when Russian troops are making slow but steady progress in eastern Ukraine. By bringing Putin’s invasion home to Russia, Kyiv aims to disrupt Moscow’s battlefield operations, expose Russia’s vulnerability, and establish the kind of deterrence that could eventually help set the stage for a durable peace.
Russia remains tight-lipped over the impact of Ukraine’s recent bombing raids, with Kremlin officials typically attributing any evidence of successful strikes to “debris” from Ukrainian drones shot down by Russian air defenses. In reality, however, there are growing indications the campaign is causing significant damage. On January 28, Reuters reported that work at Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery had been suspended following a series of drone attacks. The refinery is one of the four largest in the country and supplies the Russian military.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently used his daily video address to emphasize the importance of his country’s air offensive. “I would like to thank all developers and producers of our long-range drones and missiles,” he said on January 26. “Everyone can see their effectiveness. Our weapons are bringing the war back to Russia and reducing Russia’s military potential.”
Ukraine’s early 2025 bombing campaign owes much to advances made in the development of the country’s drone fleet. Speaking in January, Ukrainian officials claimed the military now has drone models capable of reaching targets located up to 2000 kilometers inside Russia. “Our main goal is to conduct strikes to hit logistics hubs in the rear, ammunition warehouses, and decrease our enemy’s pressure on the front,” commented a battalion commander of Ukraine’s 14th Unmanned Aerial Systems Regiment, which is focused specifically on long-range strikes.
In addition to drones, Ukraine’s air offensive is also utilizing the country’s growing missile arsenal. Since 2022, the Ukrainian authorities have revived the domestic missile industry following decades of stagnation as part of efforts to boost firepower and reduce reliance on Western arms supplies. This has resulted in the development of numerous new models including the Palianytsia, Peklo, Ruta, Neptune, and Sapsan missiles. However, scaling production remains a major challenge requiring significant investment, foreign partnerships, and secure manufacturing locations to evade Russian attacks.
A number of Western allies such as Britain and Denmark are already stepping up support for Kyiv’s missile program, which is seen as a cost-effective way of supporting the Ukrainian war effort. Deploying domestically produced Ukrainian missiles also reduces the risk of potential escalations from the use of Western-supplied weapons against targets inside Russia, a key concern among Kyiv’s partners. While this offers obvious advantages, progress is unlikely to be rapid. On the contrary, some experts believe Ukraine will need at least another year before it can increase missile production to levels that could pose a serious threat to Russia.
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Ukraine’s bombing campaign has a number of strategic goals. Most immediately, it disrupts the logistics of Russia’s invasion and increases the cumulative strain on supple chains while reducing the output of Putin’s defense industry. Attacks on energy infrastructure such as ports and refineries are designed to weaken a central pillar of Russia’s war economy, limiting the Kremlin’s ability to generate vital energy export revenues.
Airstrikes deep inside Russia also play a significant role in shaping perceptions of the war. For the Ukrainian public and international audiences, these attacks are convincing evidence of Ukraine’s mounting ability to strike back against Russia despite the Kremlin’s overwhelming advantages in both manpower and firepower. The lack of an emphatic response from Moscow is also further eroding notions of Russian red lines and encouraging Ukraine’s Western allies to overcome their fear of escalation.
Meanwhile, increasing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are sparking public alarm in Russia and directly undermining the Kremlin’s painstaking efforts to shield ordinary Russians from the consequences of the invasion. Much like Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the attacks confirm that the war cannot be contained within the borders of Ukraine and will increasingly spread to Russia itself.
From a longer term perspective, officials in Kyiv hope Ukraine’s proven ability to strike targets deep inside Russia can strengthen the country’s position in possible negotiations and serve as a powerful deterrent against future Russian aggression. With this in mind, Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine’s rapidly evolving drone and missile programs are “our arguments for a just peace.” In order for that argument to be truly persuasive, Ukraine will need to continue increasing the frequency of long-range drone strikes, while also significantly expanding the country’s domestic missile industry.
David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.
The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the , its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
Image: A Ukrainian service member of the 14th Unmanned Aerial Systems Regiment prepares a deep strike unmanned aerial vehicle before its launch toward Russian territory, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in an undisclosed location in Ukraine. Undisclosed date, 2025. (REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko)
