The latest market data from analyst Canalys has reported that PC shipments experienced a surge in first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), driven by manufacturers accelerating deliveries to the US in anticipation of initial tariff announcements. Small and mid-sized organisations that have yet to refresh their PCs before 14 October, when mainstream support from Windows 10 ends, may experience a price hike due to tariffs.
The analyst firm reported that total shipments of desktops, notebooks and workstations grew 9.4% to 62.7 million units in Q1 2025. Notebook shipments, which include mobile workstations, grew to 49.4 million units, up 10% compared with a year ago. Shipments of desktops rose 8% to 13.3 million units
Ishan Dutt, principal analyst at Canalys, which is now part of Omdia, noted that both Lenovo and HP grew shipments to the US in the first quarter by around 20% and 13%, respectively. “This pre-emptive strategy allowed manufacturers and the channel to stock up ahead of potential cost increases, boosting sell-in shipments despite otherwise stable end-user demand,” Dutt said.
Canalys noted that the major PC makers began supply chain diversification during Trump’s first term. It expects them to continue moving away from China towards Vietnam, Thailand and India, despite these countries also facing the imposition of tariffs.
According to Canalys, by the end of 2025, most major PC manufacturers are expected to have completed the shift of US-bound shipments out of China, aiming to enhance supply chain resilience and mitigate the impact of tariffs.
As an example, HP CEO Enrique Lores stated during the company’s latest quarterly earnings that 90% of the company’s products sold in the US would be made outside of China by the end of this year.
During the 27 February earnings call for its quarterly results, Jeff Clarke, chief operating officer at Dell, was asked about the tariffs the US administration was imposing on China and how that would affect Dell. According to the transcript of the earnings call posted on Seeking Alpha, Clarke responded saying that the company had built an industry-leading supply chain that’s globally diverse, agile and resilient that helps minimise the impacts of trade regulations and tariffs.
“We’ve taken our digital supply chain, our digital twins actually, using some AI modelling to look at every possible scenario that you might imagine to help us understand how we optimise our network and how we do that in the least amount of time,” he said, warning that whatever tariff cannot be mitigated are viewed as input costs, which may require adjustments in prices.
When asked about the tariffs during Lenovo’s quarterly earnings call, the company’s chairman and CEO, Yuanqing Yang, claimed the US tariffs were an advantage. In the transcript of the earnings call posted on Seeking Alpha, he said: “It’s not a disadvantage, but probably an advantage for Lenovo.
“We have already built a very strong and a unique business model. We call it the ODM+ model. We do both in-house manufacturing and outsourcing manufacturing. And we have a global manufacturing footprint.” Yang said Lenovo operates 30 manufacturing facilities in Argentina, Brazil, India, Japan, Hungary, Germany, Mexico and the US. It is also building a new facility in Saudi Arabia. “Compared to our competition, we are more flexible and resilient to adapt to different scenarios.”
This means that when faced with unexpected challenges, Lenovo said it could move customer orders between sites. The company’s supply chain resiliency is based on owning the supply chain end to end. It has also put in place a geodiversity programme to enable sourcing of commodities from locations other than China and Taiwan.
In a document published in 2023 looking at ODM+, Lenovo said: “As part of Lenovo’s global/local model, building devices locally dramatically reduces the freight miles these products incur, providing more efficient and sustainable transportation options.”
Although major manufacturing countries have been targeted with tariffs, Ben Yeh, senior analyst at Canalys, noted that their rates remain relatively competitive compared with China’s. “These countries have shown a willingness to negotiate, raising the possibility that the tariffs may eventually be reduced or waived, while China has responded swiftly with a new round of reciprocal tariffs. As a result, production relocation plans are still ongoing and are unlikely to change significantly before further implementation details are announced,” he added.
The analyst firm warned that businesses, especially small and mid-sized organisations, could face some pressure that may slow down the transition away from Windows 10 ahead of the October 2025 end-of-support (EOS) date.
A Canalys poll of PC resellers reported that 14% believe their small and mid-sized business customers are not aware of Windows 10 end of support, while a further 21% said their customers are aware but have no plans to upgrade.
“For customers in these situations, the delay in planning means they are likely to face a higher cost environment when the time comes to refresh their PC fleets,” Dutt added.
Canalys also predicted that the impact of tariffs on consumer demand will be greater, as purchasing a more expensive PC will need to be prioritised against other spending categories facing price increases.
