Will Starlink Finally Face Real Competition In 2026 Or Are Its Rivals Still Catching Up?

It’s been five years since Starlink began serving its first customers, and since then, it’s transformed from a niche connectivity solution into a global satellite internet powerhouse. In 2025, the service not only doubled its user base to over 8 million but also rolled out satellite connectivity to everyday smartphones in cellular dead zones.

SpaceX’s satellite internet is good enough that traditional geostationary satellite operators are losing subscribers. HughesNet even joined forces with the Elon Musk-led company.

Still, Starlink might finally face some fresh competition next year. Amazon’s long-in-the-making Leo service looks poised to finally launch in 2026. Meanwhile, Texas startup AST SpaceMobile has been working with AT&T and Verizon to offer its own cellular satellite connectivity.

Amazon Leo dish (Credit: Amazon)

Amazon is already offering a private beta of Leo to select enterprise customers, “ahead of a wider commercial rollout” in 2026. AST also intends to offer “nationwide intermittent service across the continental United States” early next year.

It’s why Caleb Henry, research director at Quilty Space, says, “2025 was the last year Starlink had as the sole provider of a consumer internet service from low Earth orbit. In 2026, barring delays, Amazon Leo will begin offering service, increasing competition in the sector.”

Henry even sees a potential for a “duopoly of Starlink and Amazon,” but this assumes there’s no delay. Amazon has long struggled to launch its satellites on time. It filed its plan for a Starlink rival in 2019, but the company’s first commercial satellites didn’t launch until April 2025. The Leo constellation currently spans about 180 satellites in low-Earth orbit. But according to the company’s original FCC application, it needs 578 satellites in orbit to begin a service rollout.

AST has faced its own delays. The startup aims to conduct launches throughout next year to reach a goal of 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026, enabling it to transition from intermittent service to continuous coverage for the US market. It’s not scheduled to fly its first second-generation BlueBird satellite until Dec. 23 through India’s space agency.

SpaceX has over 9,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, thanks to its reliable Falcon 9 rocket.

“Amazon needs to step up the launch cadence and AST even more,” said satellite industry analyst Carlos Placido.

Amazon rocket

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket carrying Amazon’s first batch of 27 internet satellites. (Credit: Paul Hennessy/Anadolu via Getty Images)

So, it’s possible that Amazon and AST might not offer robust satellite services until later in 2027 if they encounter more delays. Satellite industry analyst Tim Farrar also says, “Amazon’s initial focus is in enterprise and government markets, so I don’t expect to see any consumer rollout in 2026.”

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In the interim, “SpaceX is trying to lock up as many customers and distributors as possible before Amazon gets to market,” he adds. This may have included SpaceX executives throwing shade at American Airlines for holding talks with Amazon about using Leo for in-flight Wi-Fi.

Farrar, a critic of AST Space Mobile who regularly spars with its investors, is also pessimistic on the company’s satellite launch schedule. “At best, there might be trials of an intermittent service by the end of the year, but this will be so inferior to Starlink that the mobile operators will probably be unwilling to open up these trials to the general public,” he said.

Quilty Space’s Henry, on the other hand, expects AST SpaceMobile to still “make significant progress deploying its satellites and building ground stations around the world. Recent capital raises position the company to enter 2026 on a much stronger financial footing than when it entered 2025.”

AST graph

AST SpaceMobile has been racing to launch enough satellites to enable global coverage. (Credit: AST)

AST currently has five BlueBird satellites in orbit, and says it’s on track for “five orbital launches” by the end of Q1 2026, with more launches every one to two months.

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Facing a ‘Launch Supply Bottleneck’ as China Ramps Up

However, the key challenge facing SpaceX’s competitors is the “launch supply bottleneck,” says Lluc Palerm, a research director at consulting firm Analysys Mason. “There aren’t many launch providers available.” Even AST and Amazon have contracted to use SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.

“It will take some time for this competition to develop. 2026 is maybe a bit too early. But [in] 2027, there will be more players in the market,” Palerm adds.

He also expects some of the competition to come from China, which the US fears is gearing up to try and dominate with its own satellite services. “You often hear from telcos and MNOs [mobile network operators] in emerging markets like Africa and Latin America that Chinese players will be there definitely within two or three years,” he says.

Analyst Placido also notes that China’s Starlink rival, the Qianfan constellation, might achieve global coverage faster than Amazon’s Leo. Qianfan’s developer, Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology, is also working to launch more satellites and has been reaching deals to serve users in foreign markets, including potentially for in-flight Wi-Fi. For now, Qianfan only has 108 satellites, but they orbit the Earth at a higher altitude, enabling a larger coverage area, Placido adds.

SpaceX won’t be standing still either. The company continues to aggressively expand Starlink globally, offering various discounts, including in the US. SpaceX also reached a major deal to buy valuable radio spectrum from EchoStar to upgrade the cellular Starlink system with more bandwidth and capabilities, although it’ll take a few years ot come to fruition. On top of all this, the company is preparing an IPO in an effort to expand into the emerging market of space-based data centers, which will use Starlink technology as a foundation.

Editor’s note: This story has removed calling the AST satellite a “prototype,” changing it to the company’s “first second-generation” satellite. AST has called the FM1 satellite a “technology pathfinder,” and filed for experimental authority to operate it as part of a “testing and demonstration mission.” But the prototype wording may also lead readers to assume the technology is untested, so the label was changed.