The director of theInternational Energy Agency (AIE), Fatih Birol, sounded the alarm. The observation is clear: if the lock of the Strait of Hormuz don’t jump, the first airliners will remain grounded until June.
This crisis, described as greatest energy shock of history, hits a Europe structurally dependent on its imports to the Middle East. As pump prices and electricity bills soar, the airline industry becomes the first domino in a global economic chain reaction.
The European Commission is preparing a emergency plan for April 22 in order to maximize local refining and secure supplies before the summer season.
Why is Europe at risk of running out of kerosene?
European vulnerability is based on massive dependence: approximately 75% of kerosene consumed in the EU comes from the Middle East. The current blockade in the Strait of Hormuz physically prevents cargo from reaching port terminals, creating an immediate bottleneck.
Without continuous flow, kerosene stocks strategic resources are being depleted at an alarming rate, leaving only six weeks’ leeway.
The logistics system operates on a just-in-time basis (management method where stocks are minimal to reduce costs). Unlike crude oil, refined fuel is not always stored in large quantities by airport consortia.
This structural rigidity exposes hubs like Paris or Frankfurt to rapid paralysis. The complete unpredictability of suppliers now forces companies to navigate on sight, changing their flight plans almost daily to save every drop of fuel.
What emergency measures are planned by the European Union?
Brussels plans to publish an action plan on April 22 to optimize internal fuel production. It will seek to map and mobilize the entire refining capacity on European soil.
The European Commission wants to impose a maximum use of existing infrastructure to compensate, even partially, for the absence of oriental imports.
However, the challenge is significant because most European refineries are already operating at full capacity. The plan could include group purchasing mechanisms and increased monitoring of national stocks to avoid disparities between member states.
Use of emergency reserves of 90 days is an option on the table, although kerosene is not always counted separately in these strategic stocks. This bureaucratic response seems almost insignificant in the face of the systemic scale of the current oil cut.
Which countries will be most affected by this energy crisis?
The economic impact of this shortage will be profoundly unequal depending on the energy configuration of each nation. If Spain is doing better thanks to its eight refineries, countries like the United Kingdom or Germany are at the forefront with a dependence on imports exceeding 60%.
THE emerging economies However, Asia and Africa will suffer the most violent damage, far from the Western media spotlight. Fatih Birol emphasizes that Japan, India and South Korea are also on the front lines of this oil “thirst crisis”.
Iran’s toll system threatens to become a dangerous precedent for other vital waterways like the Strait of Malacca. The geopolitics of energy blackmail is redrawing the maps of global trade before our eyes and risks transforming every air journey into an uncertain diplomatic luxury.
Can the airline industry avoid mass cancellations this summer?
The aviation industry is preparing for a catastrophic month of June if the conflict does not find an immediate diplomatic solution. Carriers, like Lufthansa, admit that their forecast windows have been reduced to less than thirty days.
THE flight cancellations could start with secondary connections before affecting major transcontinental routes if replacement solutions fail.
Attempts to import more fuel from Africa or the United States will not be enough to fill the gaping void left by the Middle East. Analysts fear that ticket prices could explode, making summer holidays inaccessible for a large part of the population.
A form of energy rationing disguised by prices is looming and could mark the end of the era of unlimited and cheap air travel. The sky of 2026 promises to be much quieter than expected, to the great dismay of a sector which was barely emerging from post-pandemic convalescence.
