Apple’s first folding iPhone may not be available when it’s released. According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple is banking on a two-stage release, like at the time of the iPhone X, with very limited stocks. You should expect stock shortages…like in 2017.
The first folding iPhone is coming, but you’ll have to be a little patient before you can get your hands on it. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, known for his reliable predictions, believes that Apple could differ by several months the arrival on the market of its long-awaited iPhone Ultra (or iPhone Fold).
https://t.co/cH9jwDwlLl
— Ming-Chi Kuo (@mingchikuo) July 5, 2026
Also read: This is what Apple’s folding iPhone could be called
Very limited stocks
According to data collected by Kuo from its sources in the production chain, only 7 to 8 million folding iPhones should be manufactured during the second half of 2026. Of this total, between 0.5 and 1 million copies would be available for sale in the third quarter of the year. For comparison, Apple plans to sell between 20 and 22 million iPhones with a folding screen over the same period. If the figures gleaned by Ming-Chi Kuo are confirmed, Apple would therefore be banking on a launch in very limited quantities.
A situation reminiscent of the iPhone
The analyst draws a direct parallel with the iPhone X, launched in 2017. Mirroring the iPhone
“The foldable iPhone should experience the same fate as the iPhoneexplique Ming-Chi Kuo.
As a reminder, the iPhone We then had to wait until November 3, 2026 to be able to find the iPhone X in stores, in very reduced quantities. Apple did not have enough stock for a simultaneous release, and history is about to repeat itself in 2026. Mirroring most of the informants, including Mark Gurman of Bloomberg, Ming-Chi Kuo says that stocks at launch look starving.
“The foldable iPhone bears a striking similarity to the iPhonedeclares the analyst.
The analysis estimates that the folding iPhone could follow exactly the same pattern as the iPhone “with limited deliveries planned for the third quarter of 2026, it is likely that the foldable iPhone will not be available for pre-order or released until the fourth quarter of 2026”. This two-stage release also allows Apple to let its iPhone 18s breathe, without its very first folding one stealing the show.
Also read: Technical problems, failed tests… The folding iPhone would not yet be ready, but Apple is clinging to a release in 2026
Stock shortages in sight
The expert expects a starting price between 2,300 and 2,500 dollars. Despite this high price, the iPhone Fold would experience enormous success on the market during the end of the year. The analyst even anticipates an almost immediate out of stock after the opening of pre-orderswith delivery times that can stretch from four to six weeks, or even more, until December 2026.
This is a bit what happened at the time of the release of the iPhone X. After a shortage phase of several weeks, sales of the smartphone exploded at the end of November, reaching around 30 million units sold in the second half. To confirm all these rumors, we will obviously have to wait for Apple’s keynote, scheduled for the beginning of September 2026.
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