NOBODY can stop Xi Jinping from invading Taiwan now that he is the sole commander of one of the world’s most powerful militaries, experts have warned.
It comes as General Zhang Youxia – the People’s Republic top general, and second only to the president himself – was purged after accusations of bribery and spying for the US.
Analysts are now fearful about the consolidation of power in the hands of trigger-happy Xi.
Professor Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute, told The Sun that the president has now become “the absolute ruler” – and this opens the door to a potential conflict involving multiple superpowers.
“If you had any general in China who could tell Xi what Xi didn’t want to hear, that was General Zhang,” he explained.
“This means that he was the only one who could have told Xi if American deterrence over Taiwan should be taken seriously.
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“Now, nobody will say that. Even if every other single People’s Liberation Army general thinks that it is going to be a disaster, they will say, ‘yes sir’.
“It doesn’t have to be Taiwan, it can be any other scenario.
“The chance of China sending the People’s Liberation Army out of China for something which will lead to a disaster knowingly is unrealistic.
“Xi wouldn’t do that without knowing that it’s going to be disaster. But if nobody with professional military background will dare to tell him, then the risk that something like that can happen increases.”
Xi’s extraordinary purge of his senior ranks dramatically raises tensions in a region already on the brink.
China has repeatedly carried out live-fire exercises simulating the seizure and blockade of Taiwan – and Beijing continues to threaten to “annihilate” its neighbour.
An attack on Taiwan by China is increasingly viewed by NATO officials and military analysts as a potential flashpoint for a global conflict – often described as a scenario for World War Three.
The US has indicated it would defend Taiwan, while Japan has warned that an attack on the island would be viewed as an “existential threat” to its own security.
This could also bring conflict of unimaginable proportions to Europe too, as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that such a war would be fought on two fronts, with Russia attacking NATO territory to keep the West occupied.
Tsang warned that China will soon invade Taiwan – “no question about it” – but he believes it will be around 2037 – a decade after the US prediction.
“China can build ships and planes very quickly,” he explained.
“But training soldiers, sailors and pilots to operate in a coordinated and effective way to invade Taiwan is an extremely complex process.”
It comes as Sir Keir Starmer is heading to China for a three-day visit – the first time a British prime minister has visited the country since 2018.
His aim is to bolster trade ties with the country, the world’s second-largest economy, trailing only the US.
But the Labour leader will have to tread a fine line between appeasing Xi and angering Donald Trump.
Zhang is likely to have been at the centre of this diplomatic attempt to deepen the relationship between the two nations, but no more.
Why does China want to invade Taiwan?
TAIWAN insists it is an independent nation after splitting from mainland China amid civil war in 1949.
But China claims Taiwan remains a part of its territory with which it must eventually be reunified – and has not ruled out the use of force to take the island and place it under Beijing’s control.
The island, which is roughly 100 miles from the coast of south-east China, sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders.
Taiwan sits in the so-called “first island chain”, which includes a list of US-friendly territories that are crucial to Washington’s foreign policy in the region.
This also puts it in an ideal situation to slow a Chinese attack on the West.
And with tensions between the two nations high, Taiwan is likely to aid China’s enemy if it means keeping its independence.
Taiwan’s economy is another factor in China’s desperation to reclaim the land.
If China takes the island, it could be freer to project power in the western Pacific and rival the US, thanks to much of the world’s electronics being made in Taiwan.
This would allow Beijing to have control over an industry that drives the global economy.
China insists that its intentions are peaceful, but President Xi Jinping has also used threats towards the small island nation.
Tsang described Zhang as “the most professional” of generals in China and said that Western counterparts respected his experience as a soldier.
Purging him from the Central Military Commission, the top military body, where he was the senior of two vice chairs, the president has shown that he can – and will – take down whichever general is not meeting whatever standard he has set for them.
“Every now and then you have a a few exceptionally courageous people who usually end up with their head being chopped off,” Tsang added.
James Kynge, China expert at Chatham House, told The Sun that Zhang’s dismissal is a “huge” military risk.
He said: “We have one man in charge of an army of two million soldiers – four if you are counting reservists and paramilitaries – a navy of 780 ships and vessels, one of the world’s biggest air forces, and 600 nuclear missiles that can strike virtually anywhere in the world.
“To me, this is the risk – the extreme concentration of power in the hands of one person, and the opacity of that system.
“No one knows how decisions are made.”
Alongside another general, Liu Zhenli, who was a lower member of the commission and in charge of the military’s Joint Staff Department, Zhang was accused of “severely trampling on and damaging the chairman responsibility system” – a rare move in China.
The Defence Ministry announced the measures on Saturday. No further details on the alleged wrongdoing were provided.
The next day, the People’s Liberation Army Daily published an editorial that fell short of explaining the specific reasons.
It only said that it was “for suspected serious violations of discipline and law” and that it showed China’s commitment to punish corruption.
That is something Xi has pursued since the very early days of his rule and he has purged many others, also from the top military brass, to root it out.
It is possible that the president will be looking to “make an example” of Zhang and Liu.
But their guilt – or lack thereof – won’t be established through a trial in the court of law, Kynge warned.
“We can clearly say these guys are going down,” he said.
“I would imagine they get a custodial sentence. It would just be too huge a rupture to see somebody like Zhang given the death sentence.
“And Xi needs to be concerned about the loyalty of the Chinese Communist Party and the loyalty of the military.
“Somebody like Zhang is basically the closest thing that Xi Jinping has to a childhood friend.
“Their fathers fought together as comrades in arms, and they both come from the same part of China.
“They have a long history together, so this is a shock wave right at the center of Chinese politics.
“It cannot get much bigger than this in terms of a political earthquake in China. This strengthens Xi’s power at the top of the Chinese Communist Party hierarchy.”
