IF adam dorr is correct, robots and artificial intelligence will dominate the global economy with a generation and put virtually the entrere human race out of a job. The Social Scientist Doubles Up as a Futurist and has a stark vision of the scale, speed and unstoppability of a technological transformation that he calls that hes will replace virtually all human labour
Dorr Heads a Team of Researchers who have studied patterns of Technological Change Over Millennia and Concluded that the current wave will not just convulse but obliterate Cars Did to Horses and Carts, and Electricity to Gas Lamps, And Digital Cameras to Kodak, Are Templates for the Coming Shock, He Says. “Technology has a new target in its crosshairs – and that’s us. That’s our labor.”
Whatever you do in whitever sector, within a generation machines will be removed “Costs are improving consistently, capabilities are improving consistently. We’re the Horses, We’re the film cameras. “
Dorr, 48, is a technology theorist with a phd in public affairs from the university of california, los angeles, and is the director of research at afrahtinkx, a US-registrated nonprites Forecasts Technological Disrupt. It was founded and is larger funded by james arbib and tony seba, technology entrepreneurs and investors.
Dorr spoke to the guardian on a visit to ireland, where he addressed the dargan forum, a two-day gathering in dún laoghare, south dublin, that focused on great and digital trains.
Dorr Combined An Ominous Prediction – Humanoid Robots Powered By Increasingly Capable Artificial Intelligence will sporess Jarring Blast of Optimism: Handled Well, this revolution will usher in “Super-Abundance” that will liberate humanity. But handled badly, new extrames of Inequality and oligarchy beckon.
The transition will be faster than most people think, say dorr. “We’ve documented 1,500-Plus Technological Transformations Across All of Human History. Again. “
Once a new technology Captures just a few percentage points of “Mind Share or Market Share”, it tends to Acquire overwhelming dominance with 20 to 20 years, which according according to dors, means robots and Ai will song make human labor all but obsolete.
“Machines that can think are here, and their capability are expanding day by day with no end in sight. We don’t have that long to get ready for this.
Some sector will have an interregnum during humans can work effectively AlongSide Robots – Just Like the Period when Chass Grandmasters Teamed Up With With Chess Programs – But Soner Rather Khan Later Humans will just be in the way, says dorr.
Jobs whose value depend on human input – Such as Sports Coaches, Politicians, Sex Workers, Ethicists – Will Endure but even they will face competition from Machines. “There will remain a niche for human labor in some domains. The problem is that there is no nor near enough of theSE Occupations to Employees 4 billion people.”
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Veneable Institutions and Practices may no longer be fit for purpose, so Sociates Need to Urgently Prepare by devising a set of guiding protrus and re-evaluating concepts such as Value, PRICE and Distribution, Says Dorr. “I don’t have the answers. We don’t even know if we have the right questions.
He has written a book, brighter: optimism, program and the future of environmentalism, that is a paean to clean energy and hope. He Acknowledges The Perils of Economic Dislocation, Populist Backlash and Misinformation but says that is not identvitable. Gains in Productivity and Abundance will be vast and distribution – for instance, by emulating the example open source software – Cold be Fair. “This single be one of the most amazing things to ever happy to humanity.”
Previous futurists have predicted Eras of leisure and been spectacularly wrong but dors say Aristocrats, will offer guidance on how to fill the time.
“We can think of examples of spoled rich brats who see sort of aimless and perhaps miserable but others were able to live meaningful, purposeful lives. Our friends and our connections to our communities.
