High mobile subscriber penetration, highly saturated markets, general economic headwinds and geopolitical conflict combined to bring about a brake to growth in the global broadband arena in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest quarterly research of the market from Point Topic.
In its Q4 2024 update, the key takeaways were that global fixed broadband connections reached 1.5 billion, with a quarterly growth of 0.91%, down from the 1.44% it reported at the end of the third quarter of 2024.
Subscriptions declined in 14 countries, up from 13 in Q3 2024. In addition, broadband connections based on other technologies saw their market shares shrink again, except for satellite and fixed wireless access (FWA).
Assessing the underlying trends for global fixed broadband, the report noted that the subscriber growth rate was the second lowest in the past two years, but slightly higher than in the respective quarter of 2023.
However, it stated that the broader trend of the slowdown in growth continues as fixed broadband penetration rates increase – although there is a marked difference in growth among various regions and countries. Indeed, the highest growth in Q4 2024 came from the developing and least saturated markets.
India was at the top of the largest 20 fixed broadband markets, with a 5.27 % quarterly growth rate, confirming its huge growth potential due to the low fixed broadband penetration and a fast-growing economy, said the analyst.
Among the largest 20 markets, all – except Italy – saw fixed broadband subscriber growth in Q4 2024. The average growth in the 20 markets was 1.12%, compared with 1.25% in Q3 2024. Point Topic said that Italy saw a churn of 2.3%, as fibre growth could not offset a 600,000 decline in copper broadband connections.
South and East Asia had the largest share of global fixed broadband subscribers, increasing slightly in Q4 2024 to 50.99%. With quarterly growth in China the largest market of the region, much slower (0.6%, in Q4 2024, compared with 1.75% three months earlier), the region’s share of fixed broadband subscriber net adds in Q4 2024 tumbled from 68.17% to 54.62%.
Latin America was the only other region that also saw its net adds share decline (from 13.11% to 8.79%), with the key markets of Brazil, Argentina and Mexico recording slower growth.
By contrast, Point Topic rated North America as performing particularly well, with 11.53% in Q4 2026, comparing with 4.63% a quarter earlier. Both Canada and the US experienced a healthy rise in broadband connections, especially those based on satellite and FWA.
In terms of market shares, Middle East and Africa, and South and East Asia, saw their shares expand incrementally, 0.03% in both cases respectively.
Looking at key technology growth, the study found that the highest fibre-to-the-home/business (FTTH/B) subscriber growth rates in markets with at least half a million fibre connections were in Egypt, Venezuela, the UK, Greece and Algeria, all of which recorded double-digit growth.
The share of FTTH/B in the total fixed broadband subscriptions increased further and stood at 71.49%, with year-on-year FTTH/B connections increasing by 7.4%. Broadband connections based on cable, copper (ADSL) and FTTx technologies saw their market shares shrink further.
Things were on a high for satellite and FWA saw an even higher annual growth – 52.5% and 27.3% respectively – with the former mainly driven by progress made by Starlink. Point Topic calculated that there were 4.6 million global Starlink subscribers at the end of 2024, with the US being the largest market where more than two million subscribers.
Canada, Brazil, Australia and Mexico were also in the Starlink top five, given they were large territories with vast remote areas where traditional broadband infrastructure is limited. That said, the analyst warned of political issues potentially hindering future business in Canada.
