Apple announced iOS 26 at its Worldwide Developers Conference in June, but it said at the time it would release the update to the general public this fall. So I looked at past Apple events in September and earlier iOS releases to predict when the company would release iOS 26.
And I was right. Apple announced online that iOS 26 will be released as a free update on Monday. Apple usually releases updates around 1 p.m. ET/ 10 a.m. PT, so that means everyone only has less than 72 hours until iPhones can get new features like a Liquid Glass design, call screening and new ringtones. The company announced the software update’s release the same day it held its “awe-dropping” event on Tue where it showcased the new iPhone 17, 17 Pro and the thin iPhone Air.
Here’s how I predicted iOS 26’s release date before Apple even announced it.
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iOS 26 will introduce a new Liquid Glass design to your iPhone.
Apple held its “awe-dropping” event on Tuesday, Sept. 9, the same day I predicted the company would. In the past 10 years, Apple has only held its September event between Sept. 7 and 14, usually on Tuesday (six times), with a few Wednesdays (thrice) and one Monday.
We don’t usually have to wait long after Apple’s September event for iOS updates to be released.
How did I correctly predict the iOS 26 release?
Apple doesn’t usually announce the release of iOS versions, but it does stick close to a script from year to year. That means you, too, can perform acts of Apple divination, if you understand the history of its fall events and iOS releases.
Apple ran its “awe-dropping” event on Tuesday, Sept. 9, the same day I predicted the company would. After most of Apple’s September events, the company releases the next iOS within a week. In 2024, for example, Apple’s event was held on Sept. 9 and iOS 18 was released seven days later, on Sept. 16. In 2023, Apple’s event was held on Sept. 12, and it released iOS 17 six days later, on Sept. 18.
There’s only been one year in the past decade where it took longer than a week for Apple to release the next iOS version — 2019. Even then, Apple still released the next iOS version nine days after its September event.
The number of days between Apple’s September event and the release of the next iOS version has also trended — slightly — downward in the past decade. In 2015, Apple released iOS 9 on Sept. 16, seven days after the company’s September event, and in 2022 Apple released iOS 16 on Sept. 12, five days after the company’s Sept. 7 event.
In that same timeframe, Apple released six iOS versions within a week of the event. So the math pointed me to iOS 26 coming out six or seven days after its Sept. 9 event.
Apple also released the past four iOS versions on the Monday following its September events. So this could be the new norm and Apple will release all future iOS versions on the Monday after its September event. So it’s most likely that Apple will release iOS 26 on a Monday.
Great, so when will Apple release iOS 26 again?
Maybe that explanation takes some of the mystique out of my prediction, but that’s how I came up with Monday, Sept. 15 as the iOS 26 release date. Apple confirmed it shortly after its “awe dropping” event on Sept. 9.
For more on iOS 26, here are my first impressions of the beta, how to enable call screening in the beta and all the new features Apple said it will bring to your device later this year. You can also check out our iOS 26 cheat sheet.
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