The end of the year was undeniably punctuated by the release ofAvatar: Fire and Ash by James Cameron. Three years after the box office The Way of Waterthe director reunited with Pandora for a third film intended to redistribute the cards in the SF universe. New people, new dynamics and the promise of visual prowess, Avatar 3 had everything to stand out as the hit of the year in cinema. It did, but not as much as Disney hoped.
According to the predictions of several box office analysts, interviewed by The Hollywood Reporter, Avatar: Fire and Ash will not exceed two billion dollars at the worldwide box office. It should end its run around 1.5 and 1.8 billion.
An excellent performance at the heart of a rather difficult cinema year, marked by a significant drop in theater attendance around the world. But Avatar 3 still pales in comparison to James Cameron’s first two films, respectively 2.9 and 2.3 billion dollars at the worldwide box office. Until very recently, it seemed improbable that a film in the franchise would not exceed two billion dollars in revenue worldwide.
A disaster for Disney?
If this drastic drop is worrying, the third film would be half as much as the one released in 2009, Avatar: Fire and Ash will not be a failure however. Its budget estimated at 400 million dollars should be profitable very quickly, it is estimated that a film must collect 2.5 times what it cost to be a success. In such a context, the thresholdAvatar: Fire and Ashs would therefore be at a billion. Result that the film has already exceeded after only a few weeks. But its progress will slow down drastically now that the end-of-year holidays have passed and everyone is returning to work.
For comparison, just on American soil, Avatar 2 displayed $531 million in revenue on January 6, 2023. Avatar 3 only collected 305 million on January 4, 2026. The next few days should be marked by a drastic drop in attendance, further widening the gap between the results of the second and third films in the saga. But without being an industrial disaster, Avatar: Fire and Ash is a worrying signal for the conclusion of the adventures of Jake and Ney’tiri.
The sequel in danger?
James Cameron has warned his followers on several occasions, Avatar 4 although it may have been partly filmed, its release remains conditional on the good financial health ofAvatar 3. While he has no doubt that the film will make significant profits, a certain threshold has been set by Disney to ensure the start of a sequel. We can imagine that the billion was only a milestone to reach that the big-eared firm had big ambitions for this end-of-year blockbuster.
With its hopes dashed, will the firm put an end to Pandora and its mythology? It’s quite unlikely but James Cameron might not have the same freedom of movement as with previous films. Reduced budget? More instructions from the studios? Avatar is no longer a textbook case for the film industry, of these sagas which exceed expectations with each of their appearances. Readjustments are to be expected but episodes 4 and 5 are still on the program for 2029 and 2031.
Cameron still anticipated a sudden end to his saga and promises that he will hold, if the last two films are not made, a special conference during which he will reveal everything that happens to our heroes. He also does not exclude the idea of developing his lore through derivative productions such as novels.
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