It all started around 5:00 PM on Tuesday, May 7. In just one hour, there were reports of blackouts in several areas of Mexico (Toluca, Mexico City or Pachuca). When it was thought to be fixed, more blackouts, now in the middle of the night. CENACE, the National Energy Control Center, Twitter.com/CenaceMexico/status/1788071873714024715/photo/1″>communicated the details of the two alerts that had been activated. The problem is that these power outages and blackouts are not new. In fact, it is already the fourth emergency in 12 months. What is happening with electricity?
Too hot, too much demand. Yesterday’s problem has been detected, the future solution is another story. In the alerts of the last 24 hours, the underlying problem was simply that the national electrical system did not have the necessary operating reserve margin to avoid excess demand due to the excessive use of air conditioners, fans and other electrical appliances throughout the country.
When an Emergency Operational State of this type is decreed, it can occur for several reasons, from the shortage of natural gas, the same one that is used for electricity generation (and as happened at the beginning of 2024 due to the frosts in Texas ), to extreme temperature episodes, due to heat waves or cold waves, which can also generate excessive demand for electricity and cause the system’s generation capacity to be exceeded.
A fundamental problem. As we said, these blackouts are not new. Last summer, outages were already reported in areas of the country during the days of greatest heat intensity. In 2024, the emergencies were activated in mid-January 2024, in September 2023 and in June of the same year.
The CFE then ruled out that it was due to lack of capacity, but analysts do not see it as clear, pointing, for example, to an increase in electricity demand on average of 8 to 10% compared to 2022, an increase derived from the increase in electricity prices. high temperatures. In addition, analysts also point out that the problem does not have to be generation, but rather distribution and transmission in the face of saturation.
Lack of investment? Given the more than foreseeable escalation of the increase in heat over time, there is concern about the lack of necessary infrastructure. Without going any further, there are studies that accuse this lack of investment that, together with other factors such as drought (there are power plants that generate their electricity with water power), heat waves or increased demand, can create a breeding ground that is difficult to solve in the near future.
Solutions? Ideally, energy self-sufficiency should alleviate the problems, but it appears to have been weakened under AMLO, according to a study by the Baker Institute. Other proposals, all only on paper so far, point to more investments in construction of generating plants, modernization of transmission networks or promoting renewable energy.
Image | PXHere
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