six great-grandchildren for every 100 current Koreans

Although its latest data on birth rates and marriages seem to have given the country some respite, generally speaking about demographics in South Korea requires adopting a dire tone. Almost funeral. The nation has been seeing its fertility gradually plummet for years, moving further and further away from what is known as the social ‘replacement rate’. The situation is so critical that there are those who already have a devastating projection: if nothing changes, for every 100 current South Koreans there will be only six great-grandchildren. And that (we repeat) if the birth rate does not continue to plummet.

It is a very useful warning for sailors in Europe.

A (devastating) figure: 0.7. That is the fertility rate that South Korea recorded in 2023, according to World Bank data. The figure is far from the 1.5 it had at the beginning of the 21st century and well below the 4.5 in the 1970s. Although in 2024 the nation managed to slightly raise that indicator (up to 0.74), the truth is that Seoul has little reason to celebrate.

Its birth rate indicators are still light years away from those that would prevent the registry from beginning to decline (2.1 children per woman) and as soon as one searches, one finds studies that warn of the impact that this demographic bleeding will have on its society, economy and even on national defense.

It may sound exaggerated, but South Korea already shows the characteristics of a “super-aged” society and former president Yoon Suk Yeol even officially declared a “national demographic emergency” in 2024.

100 South Koreans, 6 great-grandchildren. Korea’s demographic reality is what it is (bad), but there are different ways to address it. And some are so clear that they help to better understand the phenomenon. Perhaps the most resounding was presented a few days ago by Phoebe Arslanagić-Little in an extensive analysis published in Works in Progress. Among other issues, Arslanagić-Little reminds that with current fertility rates per 100 South Koreans today there will be only six great-grandchildren. And this is based on the assumption that the country’s birth rate is stable and does not continue to delve into the downward path that it has been following for decades.

The estimate is devastating, although it is not entirely new. In 2023, the famous pronatalist Malcolm Collins already issued a similar warning in an article published in The Telegraph: “At this rate, there will only be six great-grandchildren for every 100 current Koreans. And that’s assuming the fertility rate doesn’t continue to fall as it has done almost every year for the past two decades. That represents a 94% reduction in generation size next century.” A similar prediction is found in media such as the BBC.

Why is it a problem? For several reasons. The first (and most obvious) is that a country in which the demographic engine has seized has three options, not exclusive: find a way to encourage its birth rate, bet on immigration or resign itself to seeing how its census decreases year after year. For now, in Seoul they are already conducting studies that show the consequences of this last scenario.

Not long ago, the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future (KPPIF) published a report in which it points out that, even in an optimistic scenario, the South Korean population risks suffering a drastic snip in the long term. From the current 51.68 million inhabitants it would rise to just 15.73 million in 2125. That is, in a century it would be less than a third of its current size.

Much more than demographics. The social and economic implications of such a scenario are evident. In 2024 the country will officially become a “super-aged” society, a label that reveals that at least 20% of its population is over 65 years old. There are calculations that suggest that in 50 years the number of people of working age will have fallen by half and the population group of age for military service will have been reduced by 58%.

Even the Bank of Korea has raised its voice to remind that if the nation does not change its outlook and continues with its plummeting birth rate, it could be dragged (along with other factors) into a prolonged recession in the medium term, around 2040.

Searching for the causes. South Korea’s demographic crisis is not new. Just as the factors that motivate it are not, a cluster of well-identified conditions that Arslanagić-Little cites in her article: the labor and professional costs of motherhood for women, the difficulties in conciliation, the economic burden that parenting represents in a society as competitive as the Korean one, cultural changes in the relationships between men and women, etc.

The analysis is interesting because most of these factors are perfectly transferable to the West. There are others specific to the South Korean reality, such as the inherited effect of the anti-natalist campaigns promoted last century.

How to solve it? That is the question Korea must face if it wants to change its course. Especially because the country stands out for another factor: its low levels of immigration. It is estimated that foreigners represent only 5.1% of the total population, far from the figure maintained by Spain, for example. Here the INE estimates that 13.4% of residents in the country have foreign nationality.

The truth is that South Korea has been implementing policies to encourage births for some time, an effort that seems to be having results, although still very timid. The question remains whether or not the country will be able to make a demographic turnaround.

Image | Enkuu Smile (Unsplash)

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