Goldman Sachs slightly cut its 12-month price target for Tesla from $345 to $320, citing weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries in key regions and demand challenges.
“We lower our below consensus delivery estimates for Tesla, reflecting the quarter-to-date data for key regions (i.e., China, Europe, and the US), as well as what we believe are broader demand trends,” noted Goldman Sachs analysts.
The investment firm predicts Tesla will report Q1 2025 deliveries of 375,000 units, down from its previous forecast of 399,000 units. For perspective, the consensus for Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries is 426,000 vehicles.
Goldman Sach’s prediction for Tesla in the first quarter is slightly above the company’s results in Q1 2024 when it delivered 386,810 units. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for Tesla is slightly above the company’s Q1 2023 results, when it delivered 422,875 vehicles.
The bank stated that Tesla’s transition to the new Model Y contributed to its weak Q1 delivery forecast. However, it expects Giga Shanghai’s production ramp for the Model Y Juniper to improve deliveries in China this month. Goldman Sachs also observed that underlying demand for Teslas is “somewhat weaker” than previously expected.
It notes that Tesla’s US deliveries in February are “tracking flattish year-over-year.” In Europe, Goldman Sachs states Tesla registrations show a “>40% year-over-year decline” in January and a mid-to-high 20% drop in February in key markets like the United Kingdom and Spain. Meanwhile, in China, CPCA data reveal that Tesla’s retail sales have seen a mid-single-digit decline year-over-year.
Despite its dreary predictions for Tesla in the short term, Goldman Sachs sees a bright future for the company. The bank still believes Tesla’s software revenue will grow long-term. It acknowledges Tesla’s progress with version 13 of Full Self-Driving (FSD).
However, it predicts that Tesla could struggle with monetizing FSD in China, where more competitors offer hand-free ADAS solutions. Goldman Sachs notes that Chinese competitors do not charge for incremental software packages.
Goldman Sachs is maintaining a Neutral rating on Tesla stock, emphasizing that its 2025 earnings estimates are below consensus.
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