The EU will respond to US tariffs with the same currency. Or rather, with the same policy, applying a curious law of the talion that from Brussels summary in a simple but resounding way: “euro per euro, dollar per dollar”. After seeing how Donald Trump pressed the Tariff Red button on Wednesday, activating 25% rates to European aluminum and steel imports, the European Commission has decided to replicate it by applying taxes worth 26,000 million euros to a long list of US goods.
The figure (26,000) is overwhelming, but the most interesting thing is what it hides. The EU has decided to “hit where” Trump hurts, penalizing products that in many cases come out of large republican votes. The goal is evident: press Trump from outside … and from within.
A word: tariffs. Trump likes tariffs. He has openly recognized it, even as a candidate for the White House, when he assured that ‘Tariff’ is, in his opinion, “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” In the scarce 50 days that has been sitting in the Oval Office, that word has repeated a few times, many. Sometimes to disdain yourself. Others, like this week, to announce a turn in the US policy towards certain foreign goods.
On Wednesday the Republican impulse tariffs of 25% to all the steel and aluminum imported to the US, a measure that connects with other similar ones of his first mandate and that has not seated anything well in Canada or the EU, which have already decided to play their own letters to respond. In the case of the EU, the European Commission announced yesterday “countermeasures” that will basically translate in applying tariffs worth 26,000 million euros to certain US exports.
What does Brussels plan? Use the stick and carrot. Yesterday the president of the CE, Úrsula von der Leyen, insisted on the importance of commercial relations between the EU and USA, the “harmful” effect of the encumbrances and her hand laid to Washington, but with them she announced the EU’s plans to replicate Trump with tariffs worth 26,000 million euros. Moreover, he has already decided how he will: the EU will advise the coup throughout April, in two phases.
On April 1 he will reactivate the “countermeasures” that he had already activated between 2018 and 2020, after Trump’s first government had also increased his rates unilaterally. That packet of punishment that Brussels wants to recover was suspended after the arrival of Joe Biden to the White House and, according to EU calculations, will now serve to respond to economic damage worth 8,000 million euros caused by US tariffs.
The second Brussels movement will reach mid -April (to be precise on the 13th) and will seek to counteract the damage worth another 18,000 million euros that, again according to EU calculations, will have the new Trump tariffs in European exports. Between one and the others they will add 26,000 million. That this last “countermelted” later has an explanation: it is new and before Brussels wants to have it well tied with the 27 EU countries.
That’s all? No. von der Legen argues that the EU has wanted to be equitable in its replica: “Since the US applies tariffs worth $ 28,000 million, we respond with countermeasures worth 26,000 million euros,” he alleges. However, there is something so or even more important than those figures: what are applied to. The EC has decided to refine the shot and direct its punishment to certain American goods that can be sensitive to Trump for a very simple reason: they leave states that support him at the polls, to him and the Republican party.
“Hit where it hurts”. A senior EU official summarized it clearly (and forcefully) yesterday in statements to The Guardian: “We try to hit where it hurts.” In the American merchandise list that has the CE in the spotlight, which can be consulted online, there are motorcycles, whiskey, wine, honey, meat, cheese … a long payroll of products in which some experts have already seen some intentionality. For example, it affects iconic products, with a symbolic value, such as Harley-Davidson or Bourbon motorcycles, a wiski with an important roots in the US.
The importance of soybeans. The same source that spoke with The Guardian I cited another clear example: soybeans, interesting for several reasons. The first is its commercial weight. At least in 2019, the US was the main soy supplier in Europe, far ahead of Brazil, the second supplier. The specialized magazine Progressive Farmerbased in Alabama, it points out that Europe buys about 6.5 million metric tons of soybean exports and soybean flour with a value of around 3,000 million dollars.
Despite this bond the same source of Brussels assured The Guardian that for the EU would not mean any trauma to look for the supply in another market. “We love soybeans, but we are gladly bought from Brazil, Argentina or any other lujar,” A year ago the EU has already increased the amount of Brazilian soy. The third factor that makes soybeans a sensitive merchandise for Trump, in addition to its weight in the commercial flow with Europe and the possibility of buying it in other countries is where it occurs in the US.
Looking at the Republican Party. Soy is one of the most relevant goods in agricultural exports to the EU. And a relevant state in the cultivation of American soybeans is Louisiana, an especially sensitive territory for Donald Trump’s party. From there is Republican Mike Johnson, the president of the House of Representatives.
Louisiana is also one of the states that was dyed red (the republican color) during the presidential elections of 2024, just like Iowa, Indiana, Missuri, Ohio or the two Dakotas. Everyone has more than having facilitated Trump’s access to the White House: they also stand out on the American soybean map.
“Smart” tariffs. Something similar occurs with the Bourbon, especially linked to Tennessee and Kentucky, traditional republican vote wipes. The Bluegrass State nickname also has been choosing since the mid -80s to Senator Mith McConnell, a Republican historical leader.
The logic used by Brussels when designing its “countermeasures” has already led some to talk about “intelligent” tariffs, created to take effect “where it hurts.” However, its effect will be felt solely in Republican territory, a priori the one that can exert greater pressure on Trump. Without going any further Illinois, a traditionally democratic state, also has an important weight on the map of the American soybeans, and the headquarters of Harley-Davidson is in Wisconsin, less politically defined.
Imágenes | U.S. Department of Agriculture (Flickr) 1 y 2 y Gage Skidmore (Flickr)
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