China is hungry. We have recently seen it with fish, sweeping underwater dugs, we also see it with the taste for the coffee they are developing and with a product closely linked to Asian countries: soybeans. The problem is that the amount of soy they produce is marginal (about 20 million tons) and it is estimated that they need between 120 and 130 tons to meet their demand. Who do they Buy it? To Brazil and the United States, but with the tariff pulse of recent months launched from the administration of Donald Trump, China has decided that its response would be to make the emptiness to the American soy.
And it is causing the silos of the farms to be burst. Brazil and Africa are delighted.
Bassoon. To understand the current situation, you have to look a few years ago. A decade ago, China was an undisputed ally of the American soybean market. It is estimated that about 40% of the soy of the United States went to China, but with the arrival of different commercial vetoes, things began to change. In 2024, China bought about 20% of its soy to the US.
It is more than 27 million tons of soybeans with an approximate value of about 12.8 billion dollars, but things began to twist with the new commercial war. Due to the crossing of tariffs applied by Washington and Beijing to their respective imports, there were doubts about what would happen to that star product and if, with high tariffs, it would remain equally appetizing for Chinese importers. We already have the answer.
The photo in 2025. From January to July of this year, it is estimated that China imported 16.5 million tons of American soybeans, a ridiculous figure compared to that of previous years. The worst is yet to come, since a virtually zero soybean importation from the United States is expected for the last quarter in which we are going to enter, contrasting with the more than ten million tons in the same period of the previous year.
In fact, if in 2024 20% of China’s agricultural imports from the US were only soybeans, this year it is estimated that the figure will remain in 12% imports for all agricultural products.
Dakota del Norte. As they point out in New York Times, in a typical year, the United States would send more than half of its soy to China, having states like North Dakota that would sell 70% of its production to the Asian giant. With this change of course in the market, farmers face the risk of blockbuster, filling silos, but without the possibility of giving way to so many tons of product.
The consequences are what we already know: brutal prices falls, loss of land value and rural economy, while farmers have to continue paying mortgages. In the 2019 commercial war, the Administration offered aid to farmers to withstand the pressure of a China that did not buy them, but it is necessary to see what will happen in the near future while senior US and China officials met this week in Spain to discuss commercial decisions (with Tiktok’s main course).
As NYT points out in NYT report, farmers expect that of soybeans to be one of the issues to be discussed, since there are examples of farms that will lose up to $ 400,000 only this year, being an inasumable situation in some cases.
China Mira to Brazil. But of course, China is not stopping buying soybeans for both human consumption and for the consumption of livestock, what happens is that they are buying it to other producers. The US is the second worldwide, but above it has someone who is living a totally opposite situation: Brazil.
With the 2019 trade war, China has already started to look at the Brazilian market, but these years it has been combining both for mere interest: as Reuters points out, USA sent its soy between September and January, before the Brazilian harvest that starred in the rest of the months. In the middle they point out that China has gained soybeans so as not to have to buy the United States this season. It is estimated that South American soybeans will cover 95% of October China’s demand.
Also to Africa. In parallel, China is exploring new origins for soybeans, especially in Africa. Although we talk about modest volumes, imports from Nigeria or Mozambique have increased in recent months, being part of China’s strategy to diversify, minimize risks and, in addition, invest directly in areas with agricultural potential and in which they can have greater control.
Because this strategy is something that we not only see with soybeans, but also with infrastructure both in Latin America (among it, railways and ports) and in Africa, where they are investing in projects that allow them to access critical minerals and metals. It is something that reinforces its geopolitical position against the United States while diversifying its sources to ensure continuous stability and supply.
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