Pure plays will have a hard time fending off older tech companies.
One quantum computing company believes its software could one day replace GPUs.
10 stocks we like better than IonQ ›
Quantum computing has become a popular, rapidly evolving sector, with several investments made in this area in addition to major technological breakthroughs. This has led to stocks seeing massive dips and peaks in the same week, giving investors in this space whiplash.
However, many stocks in the quantum computing sector are down about 25% from their all-time highs, leading investors to believe now would be a good time to pick up shares.
So, is this the time? After all, if you pick the right horse in this race, it could become a millionaire maker.
Image source: Getty Images.
When most people talk about investing in quantum computers, they think of pure play, such as IonQ(NYSE: IONQ), Throws away computers (NASDAQ: RGTI)And D-wave quantum(NYSE:QBTS). These three are among the most popular pure-play quantum computing companies and have no backup operations. For these three, it is the relevance or failure of quantum computers that makes them a high-risk, high-reward investment style.
In addition to the pure plays, there are also older companies participating in the quantum computing arms race. Some notable competitors are Alphabet And International business machines. Companies like these have virtually unlimited resources to invest in quantum computers that the pure players can only dream of. Quantum computing technology isn’t cheap, and this funding advantage that the older players have could be enough to allow them to win the quantum computing arms race outright.
If they do, it’s unlikely this trend will create millionaires unless you’ve already invested a significant chunk of money in the old players. These companies are already quite large and will not be able to benefit from a much smaller division that is growing rapidly.
On the other hand, it’s possible that each of these clean plays could be a huge winner, turning a meager investment into more than $1 million.
Rigetti Computing estimates that the annual market for quantum processing units will be approximately $15 billion to $30 billion between 2030 and 2040. If any of these companies have the all of the high end of the market and generated profit margins comparable to what Nvidia If it did (50%), the resulting company would generate $15 billion in profits annually. If the company were to receive a valuation of forty times earnings, the resulting company would be valued at $600 billion. If a company wants to earn 100x returns (which is what it takes to turn $10,000 into $1 million), that would mean valuing the stock at $6 billion today.
All three of these pure plays are currently valued at higher levels, so even in the best-case scenario, none of these stocks have the potential to make investors millionaires, using Rigetti Computing’s estimate.
QBTS market cap data from YCharts
However, there is an even larger market that these quantum computer companies are targeting, and this could result in an even larger potential market.
In an interview, IonQ CEO Niccolo de Masi stated that he thinks QPUs could one day replace graphics processing units (GPUs).
The world’s largest GPU vendor, Nvidia, is currently the largest company in the world, with a valuation of nearly $5 trillion. If any of these quantum computing companies could produce the technology that dethrones Nvidia and captures all of its market share, it could allow one of these stocks to generate huge returns. However, that is still wishful thinking, as quantum computing has yet to prove its commercial relevance.
Time will tell if any of these quantum computing companies will be successful, but they all still have a long road ahead. Unexpected problems and complications will arise for companies with huge R&D budgets. Furthermore, the chances of all three coming out well are slim, and there will be many losers along the way, which could result in a total loss for investors.
I think the best way to invest in this space is to remain patient with the proposals and let them cool a bit. In the meantime, companies like Alphabet look like leaders in this space and could make an excellent purchase now to gain some quantum computing exposure.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Alphabet, International Business Machines, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
A Unique Opportunity: These 3 Quantum Computer Stocks Could Be Your Ticket to Becoming a Millionaire Originally published by The Motley Fool
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