The United States launched a series of bombings on nuclear facilities in Iran on the weekend. Tehran’s reaction did not take: the Parliament proposed to close the Ormuz Strait, a road through which almost a fifth of the oil and gas that is exported by sea in the world. Although the final decision is in the hands of the supreme leader, Ali Jamenei, the threat has already shaken the maritime routes of the Persian Gulf.
This Monday, at least one Chinese oil tanker began to turn, according to the specialized Oilbandit account. Other boats would be delaying their routes or diverting. Although the blockade is not yet official, the domino effect has already begun. For China, the main energy partner of Iran and the main buyer of its crude, the risk of a escalation is not only economic, but also diplomatic.
The forcefulness of China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has urged the international community to “maintain stability on the critical routes of the Persian Gulf” and requested efforts to descale the conflict, according to The Wall Street Journal. Spokesman Guo Jiakun has assured that Beijing maintains communication with Iran and other actors involved.
In addition, China has described the waters of the Gulf as “important international trade channels”, stressing that its security is a common interest, according to Europa Press. Meanwhile, Washington has explicitly asked Beijing to act as an intermediary. “They depend largely on the Ormuz Strait for its oil,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who urged China to intervene to avoid a global catastrophe in the same press agency.
A vital route. China is the main buyer of Iranian crude, so an eventual closure would put that strategic source in check. In addition, due to US sanctions, many of Iranian exports arrive in China through third countries such as Malaysia, which complicated follow -up. Even so, estimates cited by The Wall Street Journal, China would absorb up to 90% of the oil exported by Iran, which would represent about 10% of its total imports.
A true energy bottleneck. The impact goes further. The Ormuz Strait carries between 17.8 and 20.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, 20% of the world liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a third of liquefied oil gas. Of that volume, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) has estimated that 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG end up in Asian markets, with China as the main destination. Also, neighboring countries such as Qatar, Eau, Baréin, Kuwait and even Saudi Arabia depend on this step to export hydrocarbons. Any closure would have immediate repercussions.
An uncomfortable position. China has intensified its calls to the dialode, but the situation places it in an uncomfortable but strategic position: that of mediator. Beijing, which has cultivated an “unwavering friendship” With Tehran and signed in 2021 an Economic Cooperation Agreement for 400,000 million dollars, which guarantees preferential access to oil and gas at competitive prices, as Efe has detailed.
However, the United States expects China to take another step. “If someone can convince Iran, it is China,” said Marco Rubio in his statements. The question is whether Beijing is willing to assume that role, or if you prefer that others manage the pressure.
And now what? The Strait is still open, but the markets have already reacted. The Brent crude exceeded $ 80 per barrel, and according to Lloyd’s List, cited by Reuters, insurance premiums to navigate the area are increasing, even without a formal closure. The tension already translates into additional costs and urgent logistic decisions. The Iranian National Security Council must still rule on the recommendation of Parliament.
For its part, China has been cautious. Meanwhile, observes cautiously. As South China Morning Post recalls, he already experienced the impact of interruptions on the Red Sea due to the attacks of the Yemen hutis. A blockade in Ormuz could replicate – or even exceed – that level of disruption.
But … can it be reinforced? It should be remembered that China has strategic reserves of oil and gas that would allow it to temporarily cushion a supply cut. And if other Asian countries remain temporarily without supply, they could end up buying gas or oil through infrastructures and commercial channels controlled by China. In addition, not to mention your energy diversification, which could give you margin.
But for now, the stage is uncertain. Chinese ships begin to turn. The routes adjust. And in a strip of just nine kilometers wide, the energy balance of the planet staggers again.
Imagen | European Space Agency (Flickr) y PXHere
WorldOfSoftware | The question is no longer whether it will attack, but if they will fulfill their threat: 9 kilometers of water keep the planet in suspense
