Predicting the weather has been one of humanity’s favorite pastimes for centuries. Already during Antiquity the Greeks and Chinese civilizations knew how to measure the seasons. Since then our knowledge has only progressed. With the invention of the thermometer, the barometer or even the hygrometer, measurements became more refined.
Despite the plethora of data available to us every day, predicting the next day’s weather is a constant challenge. Meteorology is an unpredictable science. The weather applications on our smartphones are no exception to this universal rule. As powerful and trained as they are, these applications are only a reflection of our scientific limits.
Applications that make mistakes…often
You have probably experienced it dozens of times. Your phone announces heavy rain for the day. As you stick your head out the window, you admire a magnificent blue sky. Or on the contrary, the Weather app on your phone predicts a beautiful sunny day and you find yourself soaked to the skin.
You then complain about the application which is wrong, again. And for good reason, these applications, often provided by the smartphone manufacturer, only base their forecasts on mathematics. The application follows a pattern. So when the weather meets expectations (which is the case 95% of the time) the service is spot on. It’s the last 5% that are the problem.
An overinterpretation
But on the user side, we are not completely blank when it comes to this problem. Indeed, we more easily remember extraordinary elements, rather than the norm. So a weather application that is completely wrong is a memory that leaves its mark on us.
However, what we tend to forget too quickly are the 9 correct predictions out of 10. Our brain sorts it out and only remembers the moment when the application missed it.
How to have reliable forecasts
Algorithm, brain game… a lot of things explain why our weather apps are wrong. But can we have reliable weather data? If so, how should you go about it. In reality, the weather, like all information, must be cross-referenced. Take several sources (your smartphone application, a third-party application and the Météo-France website for example).
Do not hesitate to look at Météo-France’s confidence levels when publishing a weather map. Above all, remember that the weather forecast is good for the whole day. The hour-by-hour countdown available on your phone will make you make bad decisions more often than good ones.
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