In recent years we are seeing how the climate is changing radically, and the reality is that we know well that the Earth’s climate system is accumulating heat at an unprecedented rate. And it is not a stimulation that we do in our heads, but it is the main conclusion of the fourth edition of the report Indicators of Global Climate Change.
The figures They do not leave much room for maneuver, since, according to the panel of more than 70 researchers from 56 institutions around the world who participated in the analysis, human activities have pushed global warming to 1.37 °C in 2025. And the most worrying thing of all is that, if the current trend continues, the mathematical projection indicates that we will cross the dreaded 1.5 °C line in approximately four years.
An unprecedented rhythm. The analysis, supported by an immense Earth observation network and aligned with data from the Copernicus program and institutional repositories such as NASA Earthdata, shows that the rate of human-induced warming remains at a historical maximum of about 0.27 °C per decade.
Because? The report points to a lethal combination, such as record levels of greenhouse gases and, paradoxically, a continued decline in sulfur dioxide emissions. The latter is important because, by reducing sulfur aerosols, part of the warming effect of greenhouse gases, which was previously mitigated, has been “unmasked.”
As Piers Forster, lead author of the study and director of the Priestley Center for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, explains, the key to understanding the magnitude of the crisis lies in the Earth’s energy imbalance since this indicator measures how quickly heat accumulates in the system. In the researcher’s words:
“Without human influence, it should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record level, doubling in recent decades”
The carbon counter. Perhaps the most urgent data that the scientific consortium provides for short-term decision-making is the update of the remaining carbon budget. This concept defines the total amount of carbon dioxide that humanity can still emit into the atmosphere before exceeding the 1.5 °C limit is inevitable.
As of early 2026, that estimated remainder was just 130 gigatonnes of CO₂. If we take into account that in 2024 global greenhouse gas emissions reached a historical maximum of 56.8 Gt of CO₂ equivalent, mathematics tells us that at the current rate, that budget will be completely exhausted in about three years.
Oceans under pressure. Beyond the average surface air temperature, the updated climate indicators portray a transversal impact on all biomes. Something that we have repeated a lot is that the oceans are the planet’s great thermal sink, and the report introduces a critical monitoring indicator to monitor them, which are the days of marine heat waves.
Globally, the year 2025 experienced 65 days under these anomalous conditions, meaning that this number has tripled since 1991, severely disrupting carbon exchange between the ocean and atmosphere, altering acidity levels and threatening coastal infrastructure and marine habitats.
sea level It continues its continuous advance, fueled by the melting of land ice and the thermal expansion of warmer waters. Consolidated records show a record of 23 centimeters of increase since 1901 and the current rate of rise is around 1.8 mm per year and, far from stabilizing, it is accelerating by leaps and bounds.
Images | Marcin Jozwiak
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