All things that go up must eventually come down. NASA expects the Van Allen Probe A satellite to come crashing back to Earth after a 14-year journey through space. The agency predicts that the probe will begin re-entry around 7:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday but says that time may be off by as much as 24 hours, meaning it could come down at any point in the next day or two.
Launched in 2012, the Van Allen Probe A is one of two satellites that NASA launched into orbit around the Van Allen radiation belt, which exists around Earth due to solar winds caught in the Earth’s magnetosphere. The probes were supposed to remain in space for only two years, but ultimately measured radiation for seven years before running out of fuel in 2019. Without fuel, the probes couldn’t orient themselves toward the sun to power their solar panels, and both shut down.
Once the mission ended, NASA originally calculated the probes would fall back to Earth sometime in 2032. The agency admits it did not account for the current solar maximum. The solar maximum is a period of increased instability on the sun, which leads to more intense space weather events. NASA says the extra solar wind caused drag on the probe, hastening its descent faster than initial calculations predicted.
Data from these probes is still used today to measure and predict the impact of solar winds and radiation on communications systems, navigation satellites, power grids and even astronauts in space. The radiation that the Van Allen Probes studied is also the same radiation responsible for all of those gorgeous auroras Earth has been getting lately.
Will the probe hurt anyone when it comes back?
NASA says that most of the spacecraft will likely burn up as it re-enters the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive the trip back to Earth.
The components probably won’t hit anyone. NASA says the current odds of the debris causing harm to humans are about one in 4,200, which is minimal. The Space Force will continue to monitor Van Allen Probe A’s progress through the day in case those odds change.
The probe’s partner, Van Allen Probe B, is also scheduled to crash back into Earth, but it isn’t expected to arrive until sometime after 2030.
