Wrong forecasts: The most spectacular errors in IT history

“The Internet will go down in a catastrophic collapse like a spectacular supernova in 1996”. This obviously false prediction comes from, of all people, Robert Metcalfe, the founder of 3Com and inventor of the Ethernet connection, which is now the standard for wired networks.

“I think there is a market for maybe five computers worldwide”. This is what Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, predicted in the war year of 1943. And then it was IBM, of all things, that helped the PC as we know it today achieve its breakthrough and made it a mass product.

“This phone has too many weaknesses to seriously consider it for communications”. Internal memo from Western Union from 1876. Today, telephones in the form of smartphones are making PCs obsolete.

“A computer like the ENIAC still has 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons. But the computers of the future will only have 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons”. Popular Mechanics made this tantalizing prediction in March 1949. With this predicted weight, notebooks would have been unlikely to be a success. But as we all know, things turned out differently.

“There is no reason why everyone should have a computer at home” claimed Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp. in 1977. Well, Olsen isn’t entirely wrong, sometimes a tablet is enough.

“In five years, the tablet will be the most popular form of PC in the US”. The sentence doesn’t sound so wrong, it could very well soon become reality. If, yes, if Bill Gates hadn’t said it in 2002. At that time, Microsoft was trying to push through its idea of ​​a tablet PC with pen operation. And failed miserably – the Windows tablet PC was cumbersome to use and absolutely unsexy. In 2010, Steve Jobs and Apple showed how to do it right with the intuitive iPad. It’s not enough to have a good idea, you also have to implement it well.

“The subscription model for purchasing music has failed” said Steve Jobs on December 3rd, 2003. Well, the iTunes Store also took a few years before it really boomed.

“In two years the spam problem will be solved” Bill Gates promised in 2004. How many spam emails have you received today? Spam currently accounts for around 90 percent of global email traffic.

This is what Bill Gates thinks about Intel

“This cartel thing will dissolve happily” Bill Gates told Intel officials in 1995. In 1991, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission began investigating whether Microsoft was exploiting its dominant position over other operating systems. In 2002 there was a negative verdict for Microsoft. And in 2008, Microsoft and US authorities clashed again.

“Apple is already dead” said Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO in 1997. Apple is doing well for a dead person, all living companies can only dream of being the most valuable company in the world. Especially since the zombie Apple can claim to have invented two markets in the first place: the one for smartphones and the one for tablets.

“There is virtually no way to use communications satellites in space to better provide telephone, telegraph, television and radio services in the United States.”. This is what T. Craven, FCC Commissioner said in 1961. Although the USSR launched a satellite into space in 1957.

“Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in ten years”. This scary prediction comes from Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt Corp Vacuum Company. Every housewife and every househusband vacuums with their own nuclear power plant in their own four walls, aha. Although: There is indeed a small advance in vacuum cleaners – namely the vacuum cleaner robots.

By the way: the inevitable “Nobody needs more than 640kB of RAM in their PC” We deliberately did not include them in the list above. Firstly, Bill Gates is often represented as a failed oracle anyway. And secondly, this statement probably didn’t come from him at all.

The ten strangest IT errors and false forecasts

Foto: IDG News Service

Online media reported in July 2007 that the iPod attracts lightning strikes. The story referred to incidents where people were struck by lightning while carrying iPods. Contrary to urban legend, electronic devices like the iPod do not attract lightning. But if lightning reaches a person, it can cause particularly serious injuries.

Foto: RAND Corporation

This photo is said to have appeared in a 1954 issue of a US mechanical engineering magazine. This is what scientists over 50 years ago imagined a home PC would look like in 2004. This picture has been doctored more times than Michael Jackson’s nose.

Photo: Microsoft

In May 2003, the following news hit the media: Microsoft’s iLoo portable toilet with wireless keyboard and plasma screen is nearing completion. It turned out to be a PR stunt emanating from Microsoft’s British offices.

Foto: IDG News Service

To date, the Playstation 2 is the best-selling game console in the world. It was so superior to the competition that there were even rumors that Saddam Hussein had bought PS2 consoles so that they could control rockets with their chips.

Photo: IBM

In 1943, IBM patriarch Thomas Watson is said to have remarked: “I think there is a world market for probably five computers.” Yet no one has been able to conclusively link the infamous quote to Watson. It represents the biggest misquote in IT history.

Photo: Budweiser

Warnings about an alleged virus in the “Budweiser Frogs” screensaver have been circulating by email since 1997. However, it turned out that there were never any viruses there. In general, you should always be careful when downloading screen savers.

Photo: Photos.com

The media hysteria at the turn of the millennium was intense: the feared and announced end of computer network civilization turned out to be the biggest canard in history.

Photo: Nicholasgcarr.com

When Nicholas Carr published his book (“Does it matter?”) in 2003, he entered mined terrain. While the author’s popularity rose, it was highly controversial in the IT industry. It sparked discussions for years – until today.

Foto: Counterpane Internet Security Inc.

Cryptography expert Bruce Schneier published the book “Applied Cryptography” for programmers in 1994, which was intended to show techniques for encrypting and decrypting messages. He claimed that any PC owner could learn these techniques. Schneier later backtracked: the problem was the computers and the people who use them.

Photo: Computerworld (Plattner), IDG News Service (Ellison)

A legendary encounter between the two arch-rivals – SAP boss Hasso Plattner and Oracle boss Larry Ellison – occurred at a sailing race in 1996: When Hasso Plattner’s yacht suffered a broken mast with several injured crew members on board, Ellison’s boat circled the wreck and filmed it – instead of helping. Plattner is said to have been so angry that he showed his competitor his bare bottom.