Whoever follows it, gets it. The world has embarked on the great adventure of finding rare earths anywhere to stop depending on China. Japan, with tense relations – to say the least – was one of the most interested, and has achieved what it has been searching for for two years: extracting rich rare earth mud at a depth of about 6,000 meters.
But it is one thing to find it and another to refine it on an industrial level.
Success. Japan had a set schedule: its advanced Chikyu ship had to leave in January 2026 in search of rare earths. In 2024 they reported the discovery of what could be one of the largest deposits in the world, with a survey scheduled for early 2026. The idea was to collect a sample of mud to see the composition, and the results could not have been more promising.
A few days ago, near the island of Minami Torishima, Japan signed what is considered the first successful attempt to extract rare earth sediment at extreme depths. We are talking about sludge located in a pit about 6,000 meters deep, where it is believed that there is a deposit of more than 16,000,000 tons of valuable material. It was an autonomous vehicle deployed at that depth that, using an unmanned excavator, circulated mud from that depth to the ship through a pipe. Similar to the technique used to prospect for oil and gas.
Good rare earths. Rare earths are a set of 17 metals and elements that are essential for practically any industry today. From aerospace to medical devices, our mobile phones, electric cars or headphones themselves, they all need some of the metals from rare earths. But it turns out that some are more valuable than others.
It is estimated that the lands of the Minami Torishima deposit stand out for their concentration of dysprosium and terbium. These two are particularly rare and valuable because they are used in vehicle engine magnets and defense technologies. They also have a certain concentration of yttrium, which is used for lasers or superconductors.
The rare earth war. As we read on Al Jazeera, Japan is ecstatic. A government spokesperson commented that this is “a significant achievement both for the country’s economic security and for its maritime development.” And the truth is that the discovery could not have come at a better time for Japan.
We have already commented that China is the one that dominates rare earths. Not only its mining, but its production. For decades we have let China refine them because the process is very polluting and the laws in the Asian giant were somewhat more lax. The Price has been high: the entire world industry depends on China, and China has not hesitated to use rare earths as a weapon when it has come under attack. For example, in the context of the technological war or with tariffs.
Liberally. And, speaking of context and war, the Pacific is abuzz. China claims Taiwan and some islands held by Japan while building artificial islands for various purposes. Japan, meanwhile, has allied itself with a United States that is testing weapons in the area and deploying maritime units. And, furthermore, they are rearming. For that they need rare earths and, on January 6, China banned the export of all dual-use items to Japan.
This implies anything that can be used to improve Japanese military capabilities. The order came after the Japanese Prime Minister warned that any action by China in Taiwan would be responded to in a warlike manner by Japan. The Chinese statement did not specify which exports would be affected, but the Chinese media suggested that heavy rare earths were in the equation.
Consumption for a while. That is, in the current context, it is not a whim for Japan to stop depending on China for the production of rare earths: it is a necessity. And there are already media outlets like the Nikkei that have described the deposit as the third largest reserve of rare earths in the world. Estimates point to more than 16,000,000 metric tons of rare earth oxides, something that would satisfy domestic consumption for several generations.
For example, it is noted that there will be more than 730 years of Japanese consumption of dysprosium and more than 420 years of local consumption of terbium.
Way to go. Now, Japan has found the clue, but now it is time to confirm the estimates and, above all, start extracting and refining these rare earths. That will be the task of researchers this year to, in 2027, begin carrying out large-scale extraction tests. The idea is to get 350 tons of mud a day.
Then everything has to be loaded by boat to Minami Torishima, where a first cleaning of the sludge will be carried out to separate the valuable from the mud and, then, transportation to the continent, where the refining process will take place. With everything in hand, the Japanese government is expected to publish an economic viability report by March 2028.
and red flags. It is evident that Japan’s announcement is hopeful both for its independence and for the rest of the world to begin to do something with the deposits it has been finding with the aim of achieving sovereignty in rare earths. But there are also challenges ahead. On the one hand, it is estimated that each ton of sludge produces just two kilos of rare earth oxides. This means that enormous volumes of material have to be processed to separate the ‘wheat from the chaff’.
Then there is the refining process itself, somewhat polluting due to what is necessary to carry it out and the waste that is emitted. And, finally, the concern about the destruction of habitats, specifically deep-sea ecosystems that, according to environmental groups, would receive an irreversible impact. And since we are what we eat, and more countries like China or Japan need fish with no possible alternative, clouds of particles from the seabed can affect the wildlife food chain and, therefore, humans.
Meanwhile, Chinese media are clear that Japan is wasting time and money on this treasure hunt.
Images | Gleam, TNFSA
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